"Fall Kessel" & "Big Game Phil": A statistical analysis of Phil Kessel

I’d think the mono had a lot to do with his decline around the time he was out for it. It’s not like he was 100% right before or after he missed games.

Also, he had 6 goals in 11 playoff games with a messed-up shoulder…

I havent liked the toe drag goal move he tries time after time. Yea it worked a couple of times but it got old and predictable.
Also it seemed he didn’t get along with Savard… especially after goal celebrations there didn’t seem to be any genuine congrats among those 2.
I think the B’s could afford to lose him but we better make sure some sort of sniper is attainable or develops within the current talent.

You’re right, Kessel sucks, we should sign him for 3 million.

I think Kessel gets way too much crap on this blog. He’s still a young kid as we all know, with loads and loads of potential. Players of his skill and his age are certainly worth 4-5 million dollars a season.

I remember someone saying in a comment a while back (I think it was STOC) that Kessel wasn’t maturing enough or wasn’t mature or something like that. Lets keep in mind that this kid has had cancer surgery before he could have a beer. I think his life experiences are far deeper than your average 30-40 year old hockey fan—let alone a 20-something kid.

You can’t say a player doesn’t get along with another just because they don’t celebrate together. that’s just ridiculous. Savard and Kessel get along just fine.

However, if we can’t sign Kessel we should definitely go for Mark Recchi. He was fantastic for us since being delt to us last season and has requested to return to the Bruins. I really hope they don’t turn down a player who knows the game better than 95% of players on the ice. He’s a pretty good deal too

What makes us more capable of going deeper in the playoffs this year? I mean if you lose your top goal scorer and don’t replace him how do you expect to be better?

I understand keeping Kessel might not be feasible but Ill be damned if I dont want them to try and would be sad to see him go.

Some of you, I get the impression, would not be sad to see him go and if you’re Bruins fan I don’t understand that. Then again that could just be me.

Sidebar – at some point I hope Kessel develops enough of a 2-way game where you can put PK on the PK.

Points – I like Kessel, I think there is more value in keeping him at or below $4.25m/year more then there is in letting him go. Above $4.25m/year it gets tougher.

I think the stats provided tell a solid though basic story for all young NHL goal scorers, not just PK:.

Young players can disappear in big games and/or tail off for a couple basic reasons:

1. The league is smarter/more developed.
Most young goal scorers come into the league heavy in one area and needing to develop in others (speed, toughness, vision, etc) They are typically easier to take out of games because they are more one dimensional and once they have success early on, teams will adjust how they defend them later in the season and in big games. Like rookies in baseball there’s an adjustment period to expanding & strengthing your game beyond what got you there. I think when you look at Phils stats ‘06-’08 the growth in goals, pts, +/- and even hits, show his game is developing well.

2. Younger players aren’t strong enough/conditioned well enough
especially players who focus on speed aren’t conditioned well enough or built enough to withstand a full season of hits. Younger players also need to develop their skill of playing within the flow of the game, when to go at 115% vs 85% etc, manage their physical toll. In Phil’s case he certainly needs to develop a tougher mentality and I think as he conditions his body and strengthen’s himself this will come more naturally to him.

Realistically though he got into the NHL never having to use this type of skill set, though I think the playoffs specifically in each of the last two years have showed him what he needs to do to really complete at a high level in key moments. I don’t believe there is a lack of effort here, though I would agree that he’ll never likely be as physical as we would like.

In the end to me you can’t teach speed, and that’s Phil’s greatest asset. As he develops his game around this he’s only going to get better. He’s 21 and reasonably well seasoned in the NHL now, there is no reason why he can net 40-45 in each of the next few seasons.

The fact that he is not yet a complete player is what could allow you to sign him for a good value. Hopefully guys like Cammalleri and the sedin’s will take the major $$ in the market and Phil doesn’t get an offer the B’s can’t match. His goals would be hard to replace.