The Big Game and Tailoff stats paint a picture, but likely a picture for all young goal scorers, not just PK

Sidebar – at some point I hope Kessel develops enough of a 2-way game where you can put PK on the PK.

Points – I think there is more value in keeping Kessel at or below $4.25m/year more then there is in letting him go for picks. Above $4.25m/year it gets tougher unless you are going to move another player.  The stats here which earlier showed Phil's decline over the course of a season and in big games are solid though provide a basic story line for all young NHL goal scorers..

Young players disappear in big games and/or tail off for a couple basic reasons:

1. The league is smarter/more developed.
Most young goal scorers come into the league heavy in one area and needing to develop in others (speed, toughness, vision, etc) They are typically easier to take out of games because they are more one dimensional and once they have success early on, teams will adjust how they defend them later in the season and in big games. Like rookies in baseball there’s an adjustment period to expanding & strengthing your game beyond what got you there.

When you look at Phil's stats ‘06-’08 the growth in goals, pts, +/- and even hits, year over year show his game is developing well.

2. Younger players aren’t strong enough/conditioned well enough.
Especially players who's primary strength is speed, they aren’t conditioned well enough or built up enough to withstand a full seasons ware. Younger players also need to develop their skill of playing within the flow of the game, when to go at 115% vs 85% etc, manage their physical toll.

In Phil’s case he certainly needs to develop a tougher mentality and I think as he conditions his body and strengthen’s himself this will come more naturally to him.  He got to the NHL never having to use this type of skill set andI think you can see improvement in this area via the playoffs from last year to this year. 

In the end to me you can’t teach speed, and that’s Phil’s greatest asset.  As he continues to develop his game beyond this he’s only going to get better.

He’s 21 and coming into his 3rd full season in the NHL - there is no reason why he can net 35-45 in each of the next few seasons.

To get that type of production at $4.25m is tremendous value, hopefully guys like Cammalleri and the Sedin’s will take the major $$ in the market and Phil doesn’t get an offer the B’s can’t match. His goals would be hard to replace.