Place your Bets: Blake Wheeler's Arbitration is July 27th

by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 23, 2010 12:38 PM EDT

Okay, folks. There's not much happening with the Bruins lately but we've started to get the early returns for arbitration come in. So far there have been 2 cases that have come back: Clarke Macarthur, Jannik Hansen.

Clarke Macarthur

Previous salary (per capgeek): 1.4m

Award: 2.4 Million (not accepted)

Stats: (from Hockey-Reference.com)

Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI	ATOI
2006-07	21	Buffalo Sabres	NHL	19	3	4	7	4	4	3	0	0	0	16	18.8	169	8:54
2007-08	22	Buffalo Sabres	NHL	37	8	7	15	3	20	8	0	0	1	51	15.7	539	14:34
2008-09	23	Buffalo Sabres	NHL	71	17	14	31	-4	56	12	5	0	0	108	15.7	982	13:50
2009-10	24	2 Teams	NHL	81	16	19	35	-16	49	11	4	1	3	129	12.4	1190	14:42
2009-10	24	Buffalo Sabres	NHL	60	13	13	26	-14	47	10	3	0	3	99	13.1	862	14:22
2009-10	24	Atlanta Thrashers	NHL	21	3	6	9	-2	2	1	1	1	0	30	10.0	328	15:37
Career		4 Seasons	NHL	208	44	44	88	-13	129	34	9	1	4	304	14.5	2880	13:51

Clarke Macarthur took his time coming into the NHL, similar to Wheeler. However, he spent time in the AHL and didn't really play a full season until 08-09. His 2 seasons of 31 and 35 are a bit less than Wheelers'. Uh oh.

Jannik Hansen

Previous salary (per capgeek): 550k

Award: 825k (accepted)

Stats (from Hockey-Reference.com)

Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI	ATOI
2007-08	21	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	5	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	0.0	58	11:34
2008-09	22	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	55	6	15	21	5	37	6	0	1	64	9.4	688	12:31
2009-10	23	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	47	9	6	15	-5	18	8	1	3	67	13.4	580	12:20
Career		3 Seasons	NHL	107	15	21	36	0	57	14	1	4	134	11.2	1326	12:24

Jannik Hansen seems to be a third-liner for the Canucks, was making league minimum, and now is making slightly less than league minimum.

Blake Wheeler

Previous salary (per capgeek): $875k salary plus 2.05m performance bonuses = 2.825m cap hit.

Award: Your guess here!

Stats (from Hockey-Reference.com)

Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI	ATOI
2008-09	22	Boston Bruins	NHL	81	21	24	45	36	46	16	3	2	3	150	14.0	1109	13:41
2009-10	23	Boston Bruins	NHL	82	18	20	38	-4	53	14	3	1	2	159	11.3	1295	15:47
Career		2 Seasons	NHL	163	39	44	83	32	99	30	6	3	5	309	12.6	2404	14:45

Look at that odd PIM total. Remember when he dropped the purse with Ryan O'Byrne?

Blake's hearing is July 27th and if the Bruins don't sign him I wouldn't be too surprised to see him walk. If he does, he's definitely getting picked up by someone else. I know some people on here hate him for not being a superstar in his sophomore year but personally I think he's got promise.

If you're not familiar with the process, you basically find comparable RFA players that have signed contracts and use them as evidence for how much the player should make. Here's what I wrote about Greg Campbell when he filed for arbitration in a comment on this story:

So looking for a comparable, I (of course) went to Hockey-reference and cut it down to this group by ppg, PIMs, Games played (after removing anyone whose time there was pre-lockout)

1 Stephane Veilleux 2003-2010 – ended up signing a one-year/$737,500 contract with the Wild of 08-09 to avoid salary arbitration.
4 Gregory Campbell 2004-2010 – the man of the hour
5 Brian Sutherby 2003-2009 – signed a one-year/$700,000 contract with the Ducks in 2008 as an RFA.
6 Jordin Tootoo 2004-2010 – might be a better player than Campbell, got a two-year, $600,000 AAV contract back in 2006 as an RFA
7 Matt Bradley 2001-2007 – might be too out of date to matter, and apparently signed a UFA contract before he signed as a RFA one year later, and I can’t find any numerical data. Making 1 million a year now.

(AAV stands for Average Annual Value, aka Cap Hit)

So I’m hopeful he’s not going to go over 800,000.

Greg Campbell later signed a deal for 1.1m AAV/2 years.

I tried to track down my comment about Wheeler's comparables but then I remember only finding one or two.

So, what do you think? Who's a good RFA comparable to Wheeler and how much do you think he'll get in arbitration?

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Comments

Not sure about the comparison but I'm going with $3.3M for Blake

seems like 40% raises are too common for what I was hoping, $3.3M is 20% for blake off his cap hit, I doubt they would base this off his actual salary. Or would they?

If that’s the case he’s only be offered around $1.25M and this becomes the easiest decision possible!

by JonnyNYC on Jul 23, 2010 12:57 PM EDT reply actions

The recent David Perron deal might play in the Bruins favour. 2 years at about 2.4 mil a season.

by BruinsSelectSeguin on Jul 23, 2010 1:22 PM EDT reply actions

I’m thinking it will be in the $2.5 million range.

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by Stanley Cup of Chowder on Jul 23, 2010 4:35 PM EDT reply actions

im hoping its in the 2.5 mil, but my gut tells me closer to 3.5 than 2.5

by BlueNGoldBomber on Jul 23, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Can I play too?

$2.95M!

I’d be more interested your guys’ guess on what range Boston would accept the award, and at what point they walk away?

Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.

by nhlcheapshot on Jul 23, 2010 10:14 PM EDT reply actions

somewhere right around the 3 million mark, probably 3-3.1 million

by BlueNGoldBomber on Jul 23, 2010 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Wheeler, Mason Raymond, Ian White, and possibly Niemi might all reach $3M in arbitration… not so sure about Niemi, not many RFA comparables for a Stanley Cup winning goalie who put up average numbers….

Kind of odd that all the arbitration RFAs with the the highest potential awards are all on teams right up against the cap… could be interesting.

Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.

by nhlcheapshot on Jul 24, 2010 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Halak was an RFA and signed for 15m/4 years or about a 3.75 cap hit. I could see Niemi getting that.

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 25, 2010 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions

If Niemi gets that much i'll eat my hat.

Halak has much better #s than Niemi.

I guess you can never really know how the “Stanley Cup Effect” will work in arbitration though.

Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.

by nhlcheapshot on Jul 26, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I think they walk away from anything over 3.5m.

by Phunwin on Jul 24, 2010 11:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I’m guessing $2.75m for Wheels if there’s an award. I still think they sign him before, though.

by Phunwin on Jul 24, 2010 11:58 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

That looks about right to me. However, I don’t think he’s worth that much — especially in this salary-cap-strapped season.

MPM

by MPMarino on Jul 26, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess is that it will never go to arbitration. PC and Wheeler will work out an 11th hour deal.

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by Stanley Cup of Chowder on Jul 24, 2010 4:43 PM EDT reply actions

That’s how it’s gone with every other RFA player so far, pretty much.

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 25, 2010 6:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Agent doublespeak ahoy!

“Talks have been professional, but we agree to disagree on certain points of an agreement.”

Linky linky

As an aside, David Tanabe? Qui?

by Arenacale on Jul 26, 2010 10:38 AM EDT reply actions

Ended up playing for the Hurricanes for 2 years and then retiring.

IS THIS WHAT YOU WANT, BLAKE?

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 26, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Another fine example is Dmitri Khristich. Harry Sinden was (I think) the first GM to walk away from an arb award, when Khristich received an absurd amount of money for the time, and proceeded to drop off a cliff as soon as he left Boston.

IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT, BLAKE?

(I feel like we should all turn this into a running PSA.)

by Phunwin on Jul 26, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with the PSA idea. Better get to work quick, though.

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 26, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Funny thing about Wheeler comps

Clarke MacArthur and David Perron are commonly listed as two of Wheeler’s comparables. MacArthur got a $2.4M award that the Thrashers (rightly) walked away from. Perron got a 2 year, $4.3M deal from the Blues (average $2.15M, for the mathematically declined). There’s not a GM in the league that would swap Perron for MacArthur straight up.

Not to pretend that 2 contracts constitute a statistically significant sample size, but I wonder if that MacArthur contract might be seen as an outlier by the arbitrator. It seems like almost everyone was shocked by the award. I’ll bet MacArthur was too, since he’s looking for a job and I’d bet my left nut he doesn’t get anything close to that.

by Phunwin on Jul 26, 2010 1:43 PM EDT reply actions

That does raise an interesting question

What if no one wants to pay MacArthur’s Arbitration award?

How long does it stand at that level, or when can teams offer him something other then that amount? Is it a full year or does he have the right to take less whenever he wants?

by JonnyNYC on Jul 26, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I think, though I am not certain, that with the Thrashers walking away from the award, he is now a UFA and is free to accept any contract he wishes.

by Phunwin on Jul 26, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I believe you are correct.

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 26, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

You guys are right, but it seems odd to me.

here’s a link that explains it if you like.

So basically Arbiration is way to get to UFA status, not much more.
For some reason I thought it was a bit different then that.

In Wheelers case the B’s can be like “We like you Blake and we’re going to offer you $1.5M/yr for 3 years. Good luck in the market, this offer is available for 14 days.”

Or something to that effect. Somehow I was thinking after Arbitration the B’s couldn’t resign him for anything less then the arbitrators ruling. I guess I feel a bit better know this now, gives the B’s a bit more room

by JonnyNYC on Jul 26, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

My understanding is that they can sign the player for the arbitrator’s ruling or let him become a UFA. It would be difficult to sign him for less after arbitration because the arbitrator has essentially set the player’s market value (at least in the player’s mind).

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by Stanley Cup of Chowder on Jul 26, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Right. Except in the case of someone like Macarthur, who was so horribly overpaid that the arb, and his agent, may have done him a disservice.

by Phunwin on Jul 26, 2010 7:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

The hearing should be starting just about now. Oh, to be a fly on the wall in Toronto. I guess we’ll have an answer by lunch?

by Arenacale on Jul 27, 2010 9:00 AM EDT reply actions

MurphysLaw74
Blake Wheeler and Bruins in arbitration hearing now. Will keep you posted with what I hear.

I’m a little nervous, not gonna lie.

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 27, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Curious and somewhat excited

I think I would just laugh if it comes out north of $3M

by JonnyNYC on Jul 27, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not nervous

I’m interested, but fairly indifferent on Wheeler as a player, so I’m not going to cry if he leaves. But it’s intriguing nonetheless.

by Arenacale on Jul 27, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

As an FYI

How it all works: http://www.boston.com/sports/hockey/bruins/extras/bruins_blog/2010/07/wheelers_hearin.html

48 hours…even Hal Gill thinks things should move quicker.

by Arenacale on Jul 27, 2010 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Most of them, we’ve had the team’s reaction by the end of the day.

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 27, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t take it as a good sign that it went this far. It must mean that there’s a pretty sizable gap between what Wheels thinks he’s worth and what the Bruins think he’s worth. They wouldn’t go to the mat over a difference of $100,000. So, either the Bruins are trying to lowball him and shoehorn him into their cap (entirely possible), or Wheels thinks he’s a much better player than he is (also entirely possible). In the former case, whatever, it’s a business decision. In the latter case, I’d be more discouraged since it might mean Wheels isn’t going to put in as much effort to improve.

Or maybe we’ve spent too much time on this and I’m overthinking it. That’s the third, and most likely, possibility.

by Phunwin on Jul 27, 2010 12:11 PM EDT reply actions

Well they’re going for a one-year deal through arbitration so hopefully the words “contract year” mean something to Wheeler if he ends up a Bruin after all this.

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 27, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I just hope that if he is still a Bruin and it works out for the team cap-wise, he can do more of this.

An escalator can never break. It can only become stairs.

by jjoe1185 on Jul 27, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

HackswithHaggs

According to Blake Wheeler’s agent Matt Keator his arbitration hearing is now over and “it went fine.” Waiting for a ruling #NHL #Bruins

25 minutes ago

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 27, 2010 1:02 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks for the update.....and now we close in on a decision I guess eh

So 48hrs tops for the ruling, then another 48 for a B’s decision right?

by JonnyNYC on Jul 27, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Not sure if the means anything, but Frolov just signed with the Rangers for 3Mil. He a veteran winger with 30 goal potential and only got that much. Granted he is coming off a down year, but his potential I believe is still better then Wheels’. Maybe this will set Wheeler in at about 2.5, which i’d pay for Wheels. I can’t see an arbitrator giving Wheels more money then Frolov. We’ll find out shortly I guess

by Dangles-McDonnybrook on Jul 27, 2010 2:35 PM EDT reply actions