Don't Panic

by Kungfuguy on Nov 7, 2011 12:36 AM EST

Yes, okay, I'm the new kid on the block relatively speaking. And I've been basically quiet since the cup games. But still. Don't panic. In a team sport, average margin of victory is usually the best indicator of how good or how bad a team actually is. It is also a good indicator of how lucky a team is. So the next time you're debating with someone about what teams are good, which ones are bad, which ones are for real and which ones have been lucky. Just take a quick buzz through goals for and goals against. Goals for, minus goals against, divided by number of games. Here's why.

A team that, on average, gives up more goals than it scores should have a losing record. A team that scores about as many as it allows, should be about .500. And a team that scores more than allowed should have a winning record. So for example, Toronto, really should be about .500. Yes they've been playing well. Yes they have talent. But it's likely that they've also been pretty lucky, because otherwise they would be closer to .500. Meanwhile, Washington, Pittsburgh and Philly are all for real.

Boston's record is only marginally worse than Ottawas. But if you look at how the two teams have actually played, the Bruins have been much better. In fact it'd be fairly difficult to argue that any team was worse than ottawa right now. I mean okay, the Blue Jackets are probably that bad, but that's about it.

Essentially what I'm saying is, that we don't need to panic. The Bruins have had some unlucky bounces, in aggregate, as compared to other teams. And the teams in front of Boston have been "lucky" in essence to have squeaked the wins they have. As the season progresses everything will continue to gradually approach the mean. Boston will climb. Toronto will fall. Ottawa will drop like a potato with feathers glued to it after being thrown out a window. And the B's will be peaking just in time to beat their way through the playoffs to another cup hoisting.

Don't panic. Trust in math if you can. And if not, trust in Timmy, he's more or less as certain as math anyway.

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Good points, I’ve felt the Bruins have been unlucky in most of their losses. Hopefully it will continue to turn around on the back of the 7-0 thrashing of Toronto.

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by tkent on Nov 7, 2011 9:22 AM EST reply actions

Don’t panic, and know where your towel is.

Not sure I buy what you’re selling re goal differntial, at least not this early. A 7-0 game like sat is going to wildly skew the numbers with this sample size. At the end of a season, maybe even at the midpoint its a reasonable indicator. IMO you’d have to drill down into shooting percentages to see how lucky a team is – and we were awfully lucky to face Scrivens last game. 7 goals on roughly 20 shots won’t happen too often. Nothing like .650 goaltending to boost a team’s season-to-date goal differential

by TomServo42 on Nov 7, 2011 9:51 AM EST reply actions

Small sample size, absolutely true

Basically, a team that is capable of blowing out opponents and loses close games and doesn’t get blown out is probably a good team. It doesn’t matter if it’s football, basketball, or the european abomination football.

There is always more in depth research you can do to really really see how good a team is. Or how really bad. Because there is some seriously bad in the NHL. But most people aren’t inclined to do that much looking. Its time consuming and tells you most of what goal differential tells you in substantially less time. Goal differential isn’t perfect. Not at all. And it doesn’t account for quality of opponent, which certainly matters.

My only point was, with a very minimalist effort, you could see that Boston doesn’t indicate to stay as bad as they’ve been. Especially relative to the rest of the East.

Sometimes glass glitters more than diamonds because it has more to prove.

by Kungfuguy on Nov 7, 2011 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

I agree about it being a small sample size

but if you are going to mention that they shot roughly 35% for that one Leafs game you should probably also mention they were shooting about 5% or 6% for the season before that happened. This, I think, is the best indicator that they might have had bad luck so far.

by Nomer on Nov 8, 2011 6:58 PM EST up reply actions

Good to see you again, been a while, no?

Boston will climb. Toronto will fall. Ottawa will drop like a potato with feathers glued to it after being thrown out a window.

You get an A for imagery. All I can picture is a Sens potato landing in that canal in Ottawa.

Kick his ass, Seabass!

by phonymahoney on Nov 7, 2011 10:28 AM EST reply actions

has indeed been a while

Hope things haven’t been too unpleasant around here in my absence.

Sometimes glass glitters more than diamonds because it has more to prove.

by Kungfuguy on Nov 7, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions

Okay, I'm not going to say that I called it

But this week has gone pretty good.

Sometimes glass glitters more than diamonds because it has more to prove.

by Kungfuguy on Nov 12, 2011 9:50 PM EST reply actions

I called it

prove it

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Nov 13, 2011 3:06 AM EST up reply actions

Thinking it was somewhere around here…

Essentially what I’m saying is, that we don’t need to panic. The Bruins have had some unlucky bounces, in aggregate, as compared to other teams. And the teams in front of Boston have been “lucky” in essence to have squeaked the wins they have. As the season progresses everything will continue to gradually approach the mean. Boston will climb. Toronto will fall. Ottawa will drop like a potato with feathers glued to it after being thrown out a window. And the B’s will be peaking just in time to beat their way through the playoffs to another cup hoisting.

Don’t panic. Trust in math if you can. And if not, trust in Timmy, he’s more or less as certain as math anyway.

I’m so happy they’ve pulled themselves back together… here’s hoping they take the Devils out on Tuesday!

Kick his ass, Seabass!

by phonymahoney on Nov 13, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions

A simple flow chart to determine if your team can stop the Seguin, Bergeron, Marchand line:

1) Does your team have Zdeno Chara?

If the answer is No: Sorry, your team does not have the defensive ability to stop the Seguin, Bergeron, Marchand line.

If the answer is Yes: Congratulations, Seguin, Bergeron, and Marchand are on your team, therefore you don’t have to worry about stopping them. Although you are permitted to feel bad for the teams that are not you, because they are obviously not as cool.

Sometimes glass glitters more than diamonds because it has more to prove.

by Kungfuguy on Nov 13, 2011 4:52 PM EST reply actions 2 recs