FanPost

Can Tim Thomas finish the season under 2.00 GAA?

So over at Japers' Rink we were talking about Tim Thomas and his odds of finishing the season with a GAA under 2.00 and a sv% of .940 higher. I did some quick back of the envelope calculations, and thought you all might be interested in the results.

Basically, figured out that it would be very very hard at this point for him to end with a GAA over 2.00 (assuming nothing epic happens).

The Bruins give up an average of 2.28 goals per game. If that number remains the same the rest of the season, and the worst case scenario* of Thomas playing all the games remaining, he would end with a 1.97 GAA. It would mean his total GA would be about 116 (actually 115.68) over 59 games played.

In fact, in order to get a GAA above 2.00, the Bruins would have to give up 2.67 goals per game for all the remaining 6, with Tim Thomas in net.

If he and Rask keep splitting games the way they have, he will, however, only likely play in at most 5 of the remaining games. If this is the case the Bruins would have to allow 2.80 goals per game in order to get his number above 2.00. Of course, this number gets higher the less games he plays.

On the season, the only remaining team against which Tim Thomas's personal GAA is greater than that 2.67 magic number is the New York Islanders (3.05).

I wasn't sure how to as easily quantify the likelihood of the save percentage. But I just found this damn impressive. Barring any major defensive collapse or him forgetting how to be awesome, his GAA is extremely likely to be under 2.00 on the season.

*I called this "worst case scenario" since it would mean he plays in the maximum more games (6) and he gives up more goals than his current GAA.


Many FanPosts are written by readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Stanley Cup of Chowder, SB Nation, their sponsors, or business partners.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Stanley Cup of Chowder

You must be a member of Stanley Cup of Chowder to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Stanley Cup of Chowder. You should read them.

Join Stanley Cup of Chowder

You must be a member of Stanley Cup of Chowder to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Stanley Cup of Chowder. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker