So over at Japers' Rink we were talking about Tim Thomas and his odds of finishing the season with a GAA under 2.00 and a sv% of .940 higher. I did some quick back of the envelope calculations, and thought you all might be interested in the results.
Basically, figured out that it would be very very hard at this point for him to end with a GAA over 2.00 (assuming nothing epic happens).
The Bruins give up an average of 2.28 goals per game. If that number remains the same the rest of the season, and the worst case scenario* of Thomas playing all the games remaining, he would end with a 1.97 GAA. It would mean his total GA would be about 116 (actually 115.68) over 59 games played.
In fact, in order to get a GAA above 2.00, the Bruins would have to give up 2.67 goals per game for all the remaining 6, with Tim Thomas in net.
If he and Rask keep splitting games the way they have, he will, however, only likely play in at most 5 of the remaining games. If this is the case the Bruins would have to allow 2.80 goals per game in order to get his number above 2.00. Of course, this number gets higher the less games he plays.
On the season, the only remaining team against which Tim Thomas's personal GAA is greater than that 2.67 magic number is the New York Islanders (3.05).
I wasn't sure how to as easily quantify the likelihood of the save percentage. But I just found this damn impressive. Barring any major defensive collapse or him forgetting how to be awesome, his GAA is extremely likely to be under 2.00 on the season.
*I called this "worst case scenario" since it would mean he plays in the maximum more games (6) and he gives up more goals than his current GAA.