Boston vs. Philadelphia - Conference Semifinals Preview
by Phunwin on Apr 29, 2011 10:08 AM EDT
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PrintAfter going 32 years without meeting in the playoffs, Boston and Philadelphia will meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals for the second straight season. If you aren't aware of what happened in last season's playoff series, we'd like to say welcome, and we hope you're enjoying your first day as a hockey fan. Suffice to say, Boston blew a 3-0 lead and the Flyers won in 7. However, both teams are significantly better than the versions that clashed last season. Boston is healthier and more talented, and the Flyers' young skill players are a year older and better.
Both the Bruins and Flyers eked out game 7 wins on home ice in round 1, with the Flyers coming back from a 3-2 deficit to send Buffalo home, and the Bruins, coming back from down 2-0 to take 4 of 5, with 3 in overtime, including game 7.
If style of play is any factor, both teams should be fairly comfortable with this matchup. The Bruins were plainly uncomfortable with Montreal's approach of counterattacking, stretching the ice wide, sitting on 1-goal leads and diving whenever someone in a black and white striped shirt was looking their way. They are far happier playing a physical, fast-paced game, and should find the Flyers a willing participant. The Bruins won the regular season series 3-0-1.
Series schedule:
Game 1: Boston at Philadelphia - Saturday, April 30 - 3 p.m., NBC
Game 2: Boston at Philadelphia - Monday, May 2 - 7:30 p.m., VERSUS
Game 3: Philadelphia at Boston - Wednesday, May 4 - 7 p.m., VERSUS
Game 4: Philadelphia at Boston - Friday, May 6 - 8 p.m., VERSUS
Game 5*: Boston at Philadelphia - Sunday, May 8 - 3 p.m., NBC
Game 6*: Philadelphia at Boston - Tuesday, May 10 - TBD
Game 7*: Boston at Philadelphia - Thursday, May 12 - TBD
Statistically, these were the two best teams in the East in the regular season. Boston had a +51 goal differential, and Philadelphia +36.
Injury-wise, Boston is in better shape than Philadelphia. Chris Pronger played in the final two games of the Buffalo series, after having surgery for a broken hand earlier this year, but he doesn't appear to be 100% yet. 36-goal scorer Jeff Carter is day to day with a knee injury, and they are optimistic that he will return at some point in the second round, though he has missed the last three games. Andreas Nodl (eye) is also day to day. Michael Leighton is day to day with what's described as a lower body injury, but I refuse to believe the Flyers count that as a loss.
The Bruins are missing Marc Savard (concussion), obviously, and Steve Kampfer (leg). No word on when Kampfer will be back as yet. Everyone else is healthy, assuming you believe the party line that Milan Lucic is not hurt, and just had a poor series against Montreal.
Projected lineup for Philadelphia:
Scott Hartnell - Daniel Briere - Ville Leino
James Van Riemsdyk - Claude Giroux - Jeff Carter
Nikolay Zherdev - Mike Richards - Kris Versteeg
Daniel Carcillo - Blair Betts - Darroll Powe
Kimmo Timonen - Braydon Coburn
Matt Carle - Chris Pronger
Andrej Meszaros - Sean O'Donnell
Danny Syvret
This is based in large part on the lineups last posted by our friends at Broad Street Hockey. Unfortunately, it's a bit hard to project exactly who will play where, given Carter's day to day status, and the fact that Pronger is not 100%, so don't take this as gospel.
The Flyers have an embarrassment of riches up front, with quality scoring three lines deep. Briere and Giroux were tremendous in the Buffalo series, and will be the key to the offense. Giroux stepped forward as a top-flight playmaker this season, with a career high in points (76), and paced the Flyers with 9 points in the Buffalo series. His 9 points are second most in the playoffs, behind Mike Cammalleri (who, thankfully, will not be adding to his total). Briere set a career high with 34 goals this year, and is improved over last season, when personal problems affected his play. James Van Riemsdyk had 4 goals against Buffalo, and is yet another Flyer who is a better player than when last these teams met.
Projected Lineup for Boston:
Milan Lucic-David Krejci-Nathan Horton
Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-Mark Recchi
Chris Kelly-Rich Peverley-Michael Ryder
Daniel Paille-Gregory Campbell-Shawn Thornton
Zdeno Chara-Dennis Seidenberg
Andrew Ference-Johnny Boychuk
Tomas Kaberle-Adam McQuaid
Shane Hnidy
Tim Thomas
Tuukka Rask
The Bruins got through round 1 without a whole lot of help from their top line. Nathan Horton didn't do a whole lot other than his two overtime winners, and yeah, I know that sounds like Buddy Ryan's infamous line about Cris Carter, but still. Milan Lucic was invisible in the first four games, then had assists on both OT winners, but also a boneheaded penalty on Jaroslav Spacek that could have cost Boston the series. David Krejci had a goal in game 3, and was otherwise non-existant. When he was the first Bruin in Versus' camera shot after the game 7 OT winner, that served as proof of life for me. Among Boston's big guns, only Patrice Bergeron delivered, with a magnificent 7 points and a +5. In round 1, it was Boston's lesser lights that came up huge. Andrew Ference, with 4 points, a +6 and a well-timed middle finger, was arguably Boston's best player in the series. Chris Kelly and Rich Peverley weren't far behind him.
Keys to the Series:
Philadelphia -
1. Coaching - during the first round, Peter Laviolette made a brilliant decision. He abandoned all pretense of supporting his goaltenders, acknowledged that it was a hole and said "screw it. You five guys play offense. Boucher/Bobrovsky/Leighton will just fend for himself." It worked; the Sabres defense cracked and they buried Ryan Miller beneath an avalanche of shots. I am not sure that would work as well this time around; Boston's more than comfortable with that sort of gameplan. But I think Laviolette is an excellent coach, better than Claude Julien, and his decision about tempo and flow will be an interesting one to watch.
2. Health - Not to start writing revisionist history here, but if Boston doesn't have half their roster either out or playing hurt, they probably don't blow a 3-0 lead. I don't expect anyone in Philly to shed a tear over the plight of the 2010 Bruins, rather, my point is that healthy teams win in the playoffs. The Flyers need Pronger and Carter at full strength or at least a reasonable facsimile of it. They got by a weaker Buffalo team that was, coincidentally, very banged up in game 7. Boston's in better shape to withstand what will probably be the most physical series of the playoffs.
3. Goaltending - Talking about the suckitude of Philadelphia goaltending isn't just beating a dead horse. It's beating the dead horse, driving it to the slaughterhouse, grinding it up and serving it to Fido and Spot. If the trio of Flyer goaltenders (or as I call them, "Russian Roulette"), can manage bare mediocrity, there's a good chance they win.
Boston-
1. Special teams - Boston did well on the penalty kill for the first 5 games of the first round, but the roof caved in in games 6 and 7. As for the power play, see my comment about Flyer goaltending. Almost every power play goes the same way: Tomas Kaberle stickhandles around at the point, looks in front, fakes a shot, then passes to Zdeno Chara for the slapshot. Either Kaberle is deferring to Chara's point shot of his own volition, or he's being directed by the coaching staff. My guess is its the latter, but whichever it is, it's not working. There's no puck movement whatsoever, which seems absurd since that's Kaberle's raison d'etre.
2. Penalties - You know the best way to avoid opposing power play goals? Stay out of the box! Montreal's game 6 goals were easily preventable; Boston put themselves in an awful situation with stupid penalties, which led to a pair of 5 on 3 power plays. Bergeron's high stick with 2 and a half to go in game 7 was equally crippling. On the flip side, the Flyers are a very penalty-prone team. They were 8th in the NHL in minor penalties and gave Buffalo 31 power plays in round 1. Dumb penalties are part of the Flyers' DNA. If the Bruins can remain disciplined, and be on the plus side of the penalty minute ledger, this is a very winnable series.
3. The Big Guns - This is their kind of series: fast, straight-ahead, and physical. The Bruins beat an inferior opponent without much help from Lucic and Krejci (we'll give Horton a pass), but they will not be so lucky against this team. The trio combined for 6 points in round 1. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that if the top line manages less than a point per game between them again, this series is going to be over fast. And not in a good way. You can add Chara and Dennis Seidenberg here, too; the #1 defense pairing did not have a great series in round 1.
Predictions:
Evan (Stanley Cup of Chowder) -
This series has all the makings to be an entertaining, hard-fought series between two physical hockey teams and I think this one will go the distance, but in the end the Bruins' poor special teams play will catch up to them. The Bruins were fortunate to get past the Habs without scoring a power play goal. If the B's can't create offense, especially on the power play, they will have problems against one of the top offenses in the league. The Flyers lineup is much deeper than the Habs and they have the luxury of getting offensive production from throughout their lineup. The Bruins' blue liners will need to be better in this series to shutdown Philly's talented forwards. The biggest question mark in this series is the Flyers' goaltending situation. Peter Laviolette played 3 different goaltenders in Philadelphia's 7 game series against Buffalo. Brian Boucher stood out over Sergei Bobrovsky and Michael Leighton in the Buffalo series, but you have wonder how long before he comes back down to earth and Laviolette is forced to play goalie roulette again. The Bruins will be looking for revenge after last year's debacle against the Flyers, but I don't think they will find it. Another year and another second round exit..."It's called Bruins!". It will be at least another year before we see the Bruins hoist The Chiarelli Cup (which I assume is the big trophy that Jeremy Jacobs keeps talking about that goes to teams that reach their GM's goal of making it past the second round). Flyers in 7.
Phil (Phunwin) -
I take a different point of view about the awful Boston power play. I think they've hit rock bottom and will come out of it. Maybe not firing at a 30% clip or anything, but I refuse to believe that they will be -1 for 27 again. A couple days off should help, and good Lord willing, maybe even get Claude Julien to take a fresh look at his approach and realize that something's got to change. I know there's plenty of gloom n' doom about how the Bruins scraped by Montreal, but remember that Philly didn't exactly blow through round 1, either. They needed 7 games and an ER full of Buffalo Sabres to see round 2. I'm pretty sure we didn't see either of these teams at their best in round 1. The Thomas/Boucher (or whoever) matchup is worth at least one game for Boston and maybe two. I don't think the Bruins will be sweating history in this one, either; hell, they just won 2 out of 3 at the Bell Centre, a house of horrors if there ever was one, and came back from an 0-2 deficit. No, the mental toughness is there. I think Chara and Lucic assert themselves in this series. I think Philly's goaltending falls apart at the worst possible time. And I think the Bruins take it in 7.
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Game 4 is on NESN locally as well as joined-in-progress on Versus, I believe.
Hockey Blog Adventure: New Post: Round 1: NO HABS NO (I'm also on Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Apr 29, 2011 10:29 AM EDT reply actions
When I think about this series, 2 words come to mind… Sleeping giant. Lucic and horton are gonna dominate. Power play is gonna realize that this isn’t practice, its the game… Bruins in 6
by BlueNGoldBomber on Apr 29, 2011 10:38 AM EDT reply actions
Because they’ve hit rock bottom. They absolutely cannot do worse. The law of averages says that at some point, they’re going to snap out of it, and probably sooner than later.
True story. Plus there was a lot of talk about the match up and the speed of the habs. that had a lot to do with how piss poor the pp was… they’ll have more time to set up against Philly, which will lead to a few pp goals.
by BlueNGoldBomber on Apr 29, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
The Flyers did have the best penalty kill in the league this year, as measured by shots per minute (which has been shown to be a much better predictor of future success than the standard PK%).
It’s a short series, small sample, lots of variance. But I wouldn’t look at the Flyers’ PK unit as a relief.
The Flyers PP unit, on the other hand, is downright terrible (28th in shots/min). You’ll find yourself rooting for the Bruins to take a penalty so they can get momentum from killing it effortlessly.
Where are these stats from? Be curious to peruse those.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Power play rankings (oops, my memory failed me, I forgot that a late-season surge pushed the Flyers up to 26th), and penalty kill rankings.
They can do “worse” by continuing to slump.
But, I want to believe, and will hope for the best when the first whistle goes in our favor.
The speed of the Habs for 7 straight showed that Horton and Lucic might not have been in the best circumstances. Got to hope playing another big physical team will help. Though Philly has some speedy firepower too.
Hopefully Mike Richards. Or losing to the Flyers last year… who knows?
by phonymahoney on Apr 29, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I really think the “suckitude of Philadelphia goaltending” thing is overblown.
In the regular season, of the 40 goalies with at least 30 games played, Boucher had the 19th highest save percentage and Bobrovsky 21st, which makes them pretty average. In the playoffs, the starter going forwards appears to be Boucher, who was 5th at .934 (and third among goalies who faced more than 30 shots) in the first round and has a history of quality playoff performances if you believe in that sort of thing.
Boucher’s certainly nothing special, but on a scale of one to awesome, he’s at least a ‘meh’.
Boucher has a career save percentage of .901, which is very poor. He goes up to .917 in the playoffs, which is respectable, but the sample size is much, much smaller. It’s far more likely that he’s closer to that .901 goalie than the .917 goalie, let alone the .934 goalie.
It’s certainly possible that he became Superman when the playoffs started, but it’s much more likely that the effects of a small sample size have manifested themselves.
I agree completely about the small sample size in the playoffs, which is why I said “if you believe in that sort of thing”.
But the Flyers goaltending as a collective was solid all year long — they ranked 13th in team save percentage at .913. Boucher was solid this year and has been solid over a four-year span (.911), and Bobrovsky was solid in his only year of work.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not arguing that their goaltending is great, or as good as the Bruins, or anything of the sort. But I don’t think it’s nearly as bad as it’s made out to be.
Philly was tied for 12th in save percentage during the regular season which is solid.
However, among playoff teams they were 10th. Far less solid.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno, that’s kind of my point…
10/16 is pretty close to average. If all you knew was what you’ve read in the media, would you conclude that the Flyers goaltending was very slightly below average among the playoff teams this year?
You have a point. Though at the same time they are easily the least stable of the teams in terms of goaltending. The remaining teams below them all have a clear-cut #1 (Niemi, Howard, Roloson)
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
/nod
Don’t get me wrong, the absurd handling of the rotation has created plenty of comedic value. The one guy who may be legitimately good got dropped off a cliff because he gave up goals on two power plays and a 3-on-1. A guy with one of the worst career save percentages among active goalies finished his AHL season with a couple of shutouts and got to start a playoff game…then gave up three goals and got dropped to number four in the rotation.
The handling of the goalies was ridiculous and created controversy and story lines and reasons to mock the Flyers. But it doesn’t mean the goaltending was all that terrible.
I will grant that Boucher’s recent body of work makes him look better, but I couldn’t give him TOO much credit because remember, he had a sub-.900 just last year. I think the best that can be said is that he’s a below-average goaltender, but above replacement level. If “suckitude” was a little harsh, well, it’s not the only exaggeration I threw out there.
What eludes me is why they didn’t make a pitch for the eminently available Tomas Vokoun. With any banked cap space at all, a trade would have been fairly easy to facilitate at the deadline.
Agreed. This is a source of debate on BSH, whether to rate Boucher as an average-plus goalie based on his last few years work or as a well-below-average goalie based on his career numbers.
Honestly, I tend to prefer career numbers, since goalies vary a lot and a couple of years as a 1B really doesn’t add up to all that much of a sample size. This is why I would rather see Bobrovsky in net — they were about the same this year, and unlike Boucher, Bobrovsky doesn’t have any history of performing below this level.
My real assessment is “I think Boucher is passable but below average, and Bobrovsky may be good but it’s hard to know with goalies after just one year.” This is certainly not a glowing recommendation, and the Flyers’ goaltending is much weaker than the offense or defense, but I also think the carousel nature and historical challenges for the team have led many who aren’t close to the team to assume it’s much worse than it is.
As for Vokoun, that’s a good question. The Flyers are right up against the cap and will have to shed some talent next year if the cap doesn’t go up by a decent amount. So if we assume that a deal involving their first round pick could have landed them Vokoun instead of Versteeg, then the equation is something like this:
Option A) Vokoun this year + Leino next year + maybe some FA if the cap goes up
Option B) Versteeg this year + Versteeg next year + maybe Leino if the cap goes up
I was quite unimpressed with Versteeg’s performance after the deadline, so I’m pining for lost option A right now, personally.
Well good news for you is I think it is supposed to go up 4-5M thanks to the TV deal. Whether that is enough or not I don’t know.
At least you aren’t Montreal… they have 36M in 9 players! Have ~28M left for ~13 players
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, the TV deal was a big relief. It’s still tight though.
The Flyers have 58.9M in 17 players for next year. The rise in the cap will have to be enough to resign-or-replace two starting third-liners, a starting fourth-liner, and any backup skaters.
The following year is even tougher. 44M committed to 11 guys and Versteeg and van Riemsdyk hit RFA, Carle and Coburn hit UFA, and I could imagine Pronger will need to be replaced (but his 35+ contract will still count). We’ll have to hope for some CBA help by then.
What kind of CBA help are you expecting? Can’t imagine much will change.
The only current loophole I can think of is the ability to stash players in the AHL to get them off the Cap… not sure that would be addressed though since neither side really has a gripe with that.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Go look at Calgary. They are in the worst shape of anyone, and aren’t even a good team to show for it.
by Phunwin on Apr 30, 2011 8:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Incidentally, this is, as far as I can tell, deliberate strategy by Philly. They’re basically saying “there’s a 20% chance (or whatever number) that Boucher will catch lightning in a bottle. If he does, we’re a heavy favorite to win the Cup.” That’s a perfectly reasonable strategy when you consider that the chances of any given team winning a Stanley Cup are pretty poor to begin with. You’re going to need luck somewhere, might as well pinpoint the exact spot where you need it.
Flyers fan here
I think you guys are pretty much correct in your assessment of our goaltending. Boucher would ideally be a backup on a contending team rather than a starter, but he’s capable of good, solid play. He seems to be more inconsistent than consistently mediocre. He might play well all series, he might have one or two stinkers, or he might roll into a funk.
Although, I think Boosh has had one of the best seasons of his (admittedly mediocre) career. He’s done a nice job and I don’t think we’ll see him completely blow it, but a softy here and there isn’t out of the question.
Also Flyers fan here (obviously)..
Boucher would ideally be a backup on a contending team rather than a starter
Boosh was a backup on a contending team, and was given an opportunity and outplayed the starter. I think Bob is our best goalie, but the team plays better with Boosh. Every big situation he’s been called upon—-he’s performed admirably. Last year’s game 82 was a 2-1 victory. Last year’s Devil’s series he played amazing. He played 2 good games in the Bruins series, and he was a top 5 player for us last series vs. Buff.
by OrangeNblacK on Apr 29, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Regardless of the stats of the goalies, I don’t think it’s good for the team to be starting three different guys in net.
by phonymahoney on Apr 29, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Here was the breakdown of what happened, because I feel like the media really blew up the story.
Game 1: Serge Bobrovsky starts. We lose 1-0, Bob played very solid.
Game 2: Bob. We blow 2 first period leads and then give up the go ahead goal in the middle of the first. The first 2 were on the PP and the last one was on a 3-1 where Bob was just too far back in net. It was more of a shake-the-team-up than a “pull the goalie because he stinks”. Boosh came in and only gave up 1 goal in the last 50 minutes.
Game 3: Boosh’s first start and Leights and not Bob is the backup: 4-2 win. Boosh played really well. One goal was off of a big rebound, the other was on PP when he had no shot.
Game 4: Boosh. 1-0 loss. Boosh played really well again. For those keeping track—-that’s 3 really good games for Boosh in a row. 170 minutes (almost 3 games) with only 4 goals.
Game 5: Boosh gives up 2 horrible angle goals and then another on the PP (decent goal). Down 3-0 in need of a shake-up we call on Leights—-last years hero. He plays very good, no goals and we come back to tie it up to send it to OT. Leights gives up the OT winner on a big rebound but it wasn’t a ‘bad goal’.
Game 6: Leights gets his first start (first NHL start since October) of the playoffs with Boosh as a backup. 3 goals in his first 7 shots gets him pulled. Boosh gives up 1 goal in 55 minutes of play and we win in OT.
Game 7: Boosh’s 4th start and 6th game of the series. Up 4-0 until late in the 3rd when he gives up his first goal. We answer, and then give up 1 more for a 5-2 final as we win.
Goalie Breakdown:
Bob: 2 starts: 1 great (1 GA), 1 not great (10 mins, 2PP GA and a goal given up on a 3-1). In 70 minutes of total time, he only gave up 1 ES goal.
Leights: 1 relief then one start. 55 minutes 1 goal in releif. 7 shots, 3 goals in his start.
Boosh: 2 reliefs, 3 starts. In 4 of the 5 games (played at least 50 minutes in each of the 5 games) he gave up 2 or less goals.
Conclusion: Boosh settles the game down for the Flyers and we seem to play better with him right now. He makes most of the ones he should save and he can surprise you with a big save every once in a while. Timmy is much better but Boosh has 40 playoff games started and 21 wins, both better than Timmy. Also he’s been a major part of 2 runs leading to the conference finals. You guys have the advantage in net—-big time—- but as long as Boosh doesn’t throw up a clunker, it shouldn’t decide the series.
by OrangeNblacK on Apr 29, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for the summary, it was good to hear it from someone who has been watching all the Philly games. I don’t think Bob stinks at all — on the contrary, he looks pretty solid — a shakeup is good and was something I was calling for before Michael Ryder came out of anonymity in game four, so I feel ya – but not even dressing Bobrovsky as the backup seems kind of drastic to me. I hope it sent the right message to him and the rest of the team.
I would also think that having the same goalie between your team’s pipes for the majority of the time makes things a little easier on the D, just because they know their goaltenders’ strengths and weaknesses. Putting three different bodies in the net in a span of seven games just sounds like a clusterfuck to me, regardless of if none of the three looked like swiss cheese out there. Catchin’ what I’m throwing? That said, I don’t think any of Philly’s goalies are bad, although I’d take Bobs and Boosh over Leighton.
by phonymahoney on Apr 29, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
AND!
The Bruins have almost always played like shit in front of poor Tuukka this year, so I totally hear you about Boucher getting much better play out of the Flyers than the other guys have.
Also, it seems the Flyers fans are much less retarded than Habs fans. I realize this goes without saying, but I thought I’d point out that I respect you guys much more than I respect the vast majority of Habs nation – although we did have a couple guys watching the first round with us that were pretty cool… and I don’t mean Berkshire or the other HEOTP guy.
by phonymahoney on Apr 29, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
*raises hand*
I have.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
To your last couple points…
Yes, putting three guys out is a bit of a clusterfuck. But that’s on the coaching, not the goalies.
Leighton is definitely bad. Not “oh my God the world is ending” bad, but bad enough that nobody claimed him on reentry waivers when he would’ve cost only $800k.
And lucky you, you get to keep him next year for 1.5M!
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
The proverbial turning on of the lightbulb that is the Lucic-Krejci-Horton lineup and reworking of the Chara-Seidenberg pairing should be enough to push the Bruins into Round 3. Obviously, the power play needs work, but if it’s any consolation, the Bs went 3 for 9 (33%) against Philadelphia on the PP during the regular season.
by WeatherExperiment on Apr 29, 2011 11:52 AM EDT reply actions
I feel like the team will settle in much more for this series. There were tons of expectations and hype surrounding the first round series with the Habs which I think contributed to them playing no where near their potential. Granted, last season will be in the back of the Bruin’s minds but not to the degree of the nerve level in round 1. The best news about all of this? If the Bruins can beat their arch rival in the first round, get revenge on Philly in round two for making them look like chokers last year, it’s cruise control to the cup at least from a mental perspective. There is no other team out there that can get in their heads as much as the Habs and Flyers can, so if they can put those two team away, I think they will feel like they slayed the dragon and it should do wonders for their confidence.
I think having two physical teams who play a similar style in this series will be awesome – I think both teams will be allowed to play their own game much more than the Bruins were allowed to against a diminutive, finesse-based Habs team. Bruins in 6.
by phonymahoney on Apr 29, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
power play
the last few vomit inducing pp’s that I watched, made me wish that Campbell was playing more, if everything else is failing, flailing, and futile, put out the 4th liners and let em rip. I have been impressed with Campbell’s play…
undoubtedly one of the most consistent Bruins all year long.
by phonymahoney on Apr 29, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
honestly, even without Horton, I think Soupy gives us our money’s worth for Wideman.
by phonymahoney on Apr 29, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Lets not forget Boston gave up a 1st (15th) in that trade as well.
Though Wideman obviously didn’t pan out for them given that they traded him for a 3rd and prospect.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
OK, enough defending my team for now. I’ll be digging into the Bruins in detail tonight, but lemme ask here: given that I’ve only seen a few Bruins games this year, what don’t I know yet about your team?
Having not dug into anything yet, I just know the superficial stuff that gets reported in the mainstream media.
I’m assuming that there’s stuff they miss. Kind of like how I think they overstate the goaltending problems for the Flyers, understate the impact Carter had this year, and understate how polarized the Flyers special teams were (great PK, terrible PP).
You guys watched the Bruins pretty closely — what do you wish the media had caught on to about this team?
The biggest differences are these:
1. Boston’s defense is overrated. I howled about this in a previous article, but they give up too many shots, and are too reliant on Chara and Thomas. It got better as the year went on, and to be fair, I think some of it was forcing the opposition to take poor quality shots, but still, the shots allowed number bothered me. The good news (for us, bad for you) is that since Chara will be on the ice for half the game, it’s less a problem than it was in the regular season. And if Ference continues to play as well as he did, the defense is in good shape.
2. Horton is underrated. Or, at least, he was. I think it’s safe to say the word is out now. Horton’s goals total doesn’t look impressive, but he had a ridiculous snake-bit period in the middle of the season where he hit a ton of iron. Just pure bad luck; he should have blown past that 30 goal mark.
3. The third line is coming together. This was a massive source of frustration during the year, and I think most Bruins fans had written off Chris Kelly’s pickup as a waste. Well, they jelled in the Montreal series and are playing very well as a unit. They probably don’t win that series without Kelly, and definitely don’t without Kelly and Peverley. Ryder was good for most of the series too, though he is what he is: a floater who doesn’t give consistent effort.
4. The penalty kill is good. The numbers don’t look great against Montreal (6/27 on the PP), but take out the 2 5 on 3 goals, and suddenly it’s a very respectable 4/25. After getting Kelly and Peverley, they were something like 88% (I don’t remember the exact number) on the penalty kill. Indeed, that’s more in line with last year, when the Bruins were an excellent penalty killing team. I would not put much stock in the full season numbers; they are artificially deflated by a pretty rough 2 month stretch in January and February.
Awesome. Thanks for the rundown.
One question: By the numbers, it looks to me like Horton’s 5-on-5 shooting percentage was actually pretty darn good (13.7% at 5-on-5, 16.2% at 5-on-4), so if you were left thinking the goal total should’ve been higher then he must have been getting off shots from pretty dangerous parts of the ice. How much of that do his linemates get credit for?
Keep in mind that hitting the post, the last I checked, doesn’t count as a shot on goal, and he hit the post a LOT for a couple months there, so maybe his % looks better than it actually was? That said, if he had better luck, he would’ve netted over 30 for sure.
by phonymahoney on Apr 29, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I always forget that posts don’t count as shots… shouldn’t shooting percentage include missed shots (which I assume posts count as)
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d give a lot of credit to linemates. Krejci sees the ice and finds seams well, good at getting it to him in the slot. Lucic (when he’s not playing like he’s injured) creates room both by doing the dirty work and by being a genuine scoring threat in his own right. Drop Horton a line, I don’t think he’s half as effective
/nod
Doesn’t take anything away from Horton — getting to those dangerous spots and getting shots off is a legitimate skill, but I like getting the perspective on who typically creates the play and who typically finishes it.
Patrice Bergeron is gradually returning to his pre-Jones offensive form.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Definitely the most solid all around and while he’s not the most skilled guy, I’d venture to say he’s the most responsible.
by phonymahoney on Apr 29, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Back in February, I took a look at coming up with composite scores that reflected how tough a guy’s starting situations were and how positive his results were from those spots. Bergeron really popped out at me in that analysis.
The article is here, but it’s not the easiest read, so I’ll summarize here.
By this metric (which combined QualComp, Corsi Rel QoC, and zone starts), Bergeron was facing the 16th toughest situations in the league and achieving great results — of the 100 forwards facing the toughest usage, only Datsyuk’s results score was higher.
Can’t say I am surprised… have loved the guy since he broke into the league. Hasn’t shown the offensive abilities he did his first couple years but his all around game is phenomenal.
Still upset he wasn’t a Selke finalist.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I saw Kessler and Datsuk were finalists, and forget who the third is, but does anyone have a shot that isn’t named Pavel?
Also saw St. Louis was a Hart finalist, does he have a shot?
by OrangeNblacK on Apr 29, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Toews.
Datsyuk doesn’t belong simply because of lost time. Shouldn’t be able to win a major award missing 30% of the season.
Funny bit, based on your metric Bergeron is 17th and the other two are down in the 100-range.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I haven’t updated it since February, so take the exact numbers with a modest sized helping of salt. But here’s how the final usage numbers compared:
Bergeron QualComp 0.047, Corsi Rel QoC 1.026, OZ% 42.7%
Datsyuk 0.076, 1.175, 47.7%
Toews 0.079, 0.425, 62.1%
So Datsyuk faced slightly tougher competition but started in the defensive end a lot less, and Toews…well, nobody who’s starting in the offensive end 62% of the time should be up for any kind of defensive commendations.
62.1% OZ starts is 14th among forwards with at least 60 games played. 14th out of 305. That does not scream “defensive role” to me.
The NHL has a history of this. Mike Green last year stands out to me
by OrangeNblacK on Apr 29, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Ever since he was a rookie, I’ve been a huge fan. Such a big part of this team, and I’d be really distraught if we lost him (as I was in ’07 with the Jones thing).
by phonymahoney on Apr 29, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Love me some Patty B.
He really had a terrific series and I was shocked when I saw he wasn’t up for the Selke. I kind of assumed he’d automatically be a finalist.
What does a guy have to do, ya know?
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
Last year the Washington Capitals tried the whole ‘ignore defense and go for offense’ strategy. It didn’t work out well. The Flyers seem to be doing a little better on account that they do have some credible defensemen but the gong-show of goaltending seems like a very exploitable weakness.
As for the match-up itself, Boston feasted on the Flyers during the regular season, going 3-0-1 and never losing in regulation. Sure, things change in the playoffs, but every indication seems to be that Boston’s play style is pretty effective against Philly. The EA Sports Simulation, which went 8/8 in round 1, also has Boston’s back.
One more thing about Chara – his illness/dehydration caused him to lose 10 pounds in a single day and was likely a lot more severe than people thought. He’s since put 7 of those pounds back on and should ideally be a lot better in round 2.
I’m a little confused, are you saying that the Flyers
‘ignore defense and go for offense’because I think we went opposite this year with the signing of a 4 million dollar 5th defender. The only reason we got out of Buffalo without Prongs was because I believe, and I think most people that have watched us a lot, our defense is one of the tops in the league. Chara and Pronger are a toss-up but after that, I think the Flyers might have the next four best defensmen. I don’t know too much about your defense on an individual level but how do Kaberle and Ferance or whoever else your top guys are compare to Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn, Matt Carle, and Andrej Meszaros?
All that said it should be a classic series with a renewed rivalry.
by OrangeNblacK on Apr 29, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
It’ll be fun, without a doubt. I’d much rather play a physical team with some balls and grit than a whiny, faking, fairyass Montreal team.
by phonymahoney on Apr 29, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably based on the whole “screw it. You five guys play offense. Boucher/Bobrovsky/Leighton will just fend for himself.”
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Touche. We are a different team with Pronger. Our PP w/out him this season was around 10%, with him we were around 20%. Games 1-5 without Pronger we were 2-26. 6-7 with him we were 3-8 with another goal scored right after time ran out on a PP so in a post game interview Pronger said ‘lets count it as a half’, so I guess we were 3.5-8???
by OrangeNblacK on Apr 29, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure how his impact on the PP proves that they aren’t ignoring defense…
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
You five guys play offense. Boucher/Bobrovsky/Leighton will just fend for himself."
I think that quote was talking about the first five games of the series. Once Boosh was put in the game in game 6 the Flyers outscored the Sabres 10-3 while controlling the game. Having Pronger back on d totally re-allignes us.
Without Pronger our defense looks like this:
1. Timonen and Coburn - a very solid top pair
2. Carle and Meszaros—- a very solid middle pair
3. O’Donnell and Danny Syvret - a below average to bad third pair
With Pronger our defense looks like this:
1. Carle and Pronger—- one of the top pairs in hockey
2. Timo and Coby—- Would be a top pair on half the teams in the NHL and is arguably the best 2nd pair in all of hockey
3. Meszaros and O’D—- Mez could be a 1 or 2 on most teams with the way he is playing. When these guys were together in the first half of the year they were the top 2 in +/-. This is the top 3rd pair in hockey.
Without Pronger there was a lack-luster feel to our game. With him, he just calms everything. I predict 23+ minutes for the Big guy with out any noticeable hurting.
by OrangeNblacK on Apr 29, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s actually the whole series. Philly was, to my eyes, constantly looking to attack, press the pace and put shots on net, and forecheck, all at the expense of their own end. I’m not knocking it at all; it was fun hockey to watch, and it worked for them. What did they have in game 6? 45 shots or something like that?
The “whoever else” on our D are Seidenberg, Boychuk, and McQuaid, all more or less stay-at-home guys with descending level of skill. The latter two can be major bruisers, where Seidenberg is a shot blocking machine. You may see him referred to as “Dikembe” on here on occasion.
I’d say your D is a bit more mobile then ours and I think you have the edge right now overall due to our line shuffling.
With Seidenberg paired with Chara, We have a very strong top pair to match yours, but we’d had Seidenberg anchoring the second pairing before, so the shift creates a bit of a steep drop off with a Ference/Boychuk pair. By no means pushovers though, Ference is quite capable so long as his minutes are kept in the mid-range. Kaberle/McQuaid makes me crazy nervous, Kabrle hasn’t panned out and his own-zone instincts are frequently lacking. At this point I’m hoping our rookie puck mover Kampfer can step in in place of Kaberle.
As organized, you’ve got the edge but if Seidenberg’s game is a bit steadier (the reason I personally believe he was moved was to minimize his mistakes by rolling with the steady hand of Chara) he can return to anchoring his own line and spread out the minutes a bit better. Otherwise, I fear Claude not trusting the third pair and our top line getting too damned many minutes, which was a problem of yours last year.
It’ll be interesting to see who the top pair matches up with if there’s a big drop-off to the second pair.
Hartnell-Briere-Leino is the line that the Flyers deploy in the offensive zone the most and look to for offensive playmaking. But JVR-Giroux-Carter/Zherdev is their best line (and it’s not even close, IMO); I’d guess they see the majority of Chara’s ice time, and it’ll be interesting to see if Briere’s line can stay hot as a result.
I always find it amusing how the actual best line isn’t always the apparent best line. To me, the hardest part of hockey analysis is the defensive side of the game… so important but so hard to objectively judge.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on Apr 29, 2011 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Hartnell-Briere-Leino is the offensively-deployed scoring line. Leino is particularly sheltered, but neither he nor Briere is trusted in the defensive zone; Laviolette puts them out in the offensive zone and hopes they score. But they’re not the best line by any means — there are people on the team who were used in tougher spots and still put up better results.
Carter and Giroux are the top two contenders for team MVP.
Carter took on the toughest assignments on the team and finished with the third-best Corsi (team shot differential with him on the ice, correlates well with puck possession, zone time, and scoring). He faced the toughest competition, started in the defensive zone more often than anyone not on the fourth line, and still consistently moved the play forwards quite effectively.
Giroux’s assignments were more middling. He faced the third-toughest competition on the team, but started in the offensive zone almost half the time. And yet from those spots, he had an outstanding Corsi — the difference in the team with him on the ice vs off was the 11th best in the league, which is particularly impressive on such a deep team.
Giroux’s a flashy playmaker and Carter’s a shooter, so they made an outstanding pair. JVR has really grown throughout this year and was arguably the best player on the ice in the Buffalo series, so that makes a pretty strong line. If Carter is out they slip a notch defensively, but Zherdev has also had a very strong year (even though Laviolette hates playing him) and I still think it’s the best line.
I actually have a different take than you. I think Seidenberg was paired with Chara for the simple reason that CJ intends to put his two best defensemen on the ice for 30 minutes a night. Both players are more than capable of soaking up large amounts of ice time.
Im not thrilled with all offense or all defense
there needs to be a middle ground.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Apr 30, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I was going to take more heat for my take on this series.
by Stanley Cup of Chowder on Apr 29, 2011 8:58 PM EDT reply actions
I can’t imagine any Bruins fan seriously believes the B’s will romp in this one. If you had picked Montreal in 7, yeah, you’d have taken some shit.
I feel at least somewhat vindicated for the fact that Buffalo gave Philly just as tough a time as Montreal gave the Bruins, if not more so. The Rangers…um, less so.
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