NHL Eastern Conference Finals Preview: Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
by Stanley Cup of Chowder on May 13, 2011 12:39 AM EDT
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After more than a week off after clinching their second round series against the Philadelphia Flyers, the Bruins will be back on the Garden ice on Saturday night for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals versus the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Tampa Bay Lightning's trip to the East Finals went through Pittsburgh and Washington. The Lightning took their opening round series with the Penguins in 7 games before making surprisingly quick work of the Capitals in a 4-0 sweep.
The Bruins and Lightning met four times in the regular season with the B's holding a 3-1-0 edge in the season series including a 8-1 pounding of the Lightning back on December 2nd in Marc Savard's first game back from post-concussion syndrome after missing the start of the season. The teams last met on March 3rd in a game that the Bruins won 2-1 behind goals from Steven Kampfer and Milan Lucic.
Series Schedule
| Saturday, May 14 | at Boston, 8:00 p.m. ET |
VERSUS, CBC, RDS | |
| Tuesday, May 17 | at Boston, 8:00 p.m. ET |
VERSUS, TSN, RDS | |
| Thursday, May 19 | at Tampa Bay, 8:00 p.m. ET |
VERSUS, TSN, RDS | |
| Saturday, May 21 | at Tampa Bay, 1:30 p.m. ET |
NBC, TSN, RDS | |
| *Monday, May 23 | at Boston, 8:00 p.m. ET |
VERSUS, CBC, RDS | |
| *Wednesday, May 25 |
at Tampa Bay, 8:00 p.m. ET |
VERSUS, CBC, RDS | |
| *Friday, May 27 | at Boston, 8:00 p.m. ET |
VERSUS, CBC, RDS | |
*If needed
Series at A Glance
 |
 |
|
| 8-3 |
Playoff Record | 8-3 |
| 3.36 | Goals/Game | 3.46 |
| 2.18 |
Goals Against/Game | 2.18 |
| 33.8 |
Shots/Game | 26.7 |
| 34.4 |
Shots Against/Game | 35.5 |
| 5.4% |
Power Play | 26.7% |
| 80.5% |
Penalty Kill | 94.4% |
| 53.4% | Face Offs | 49.7% |
| 12.2 |
PIMs/Game | 12.2 |
| 2.38 | 5 on 5 Ratio | 1.15 |
| Brad Marchand (5) Nathan Horton (5) David Krejci (5) |
Leading Goal Scorer(s) | Sean Bergenheim (7) |
Projected Lineups
Boston
Milan Lucic - David Krejci - Nathan Horton
Brad Marchand - Chris Kelly - Mark Recchi
Michael Ryder - Rich Peverley - Tyler Seguin
Daniel Paille - Gregory Campbell - Shawn ThorntonZdeno Chara - Dennis Seidenberg
Andrew Ference - Johnny Boychuk
Tomas Kaberle - Adam McQuaidTim Thomas
Tuukka Rask
Tampa Bay (per NHLDailyFaceoff.com)
Ryan Malone - Steven Stamkos - Martin St. Louis
Simon Gagne - Vincent Lacavalier - Teddy Purcell
Sean Bergenheim - Dominic Moore - Steve Downie
Marc-Andre Bergeron - Nate Thompson - Adam HallMattias Ohlund - Eric Brewer
Victor Hedman - Brett Clark
Mike Lundin - Randy JonesDwayne Roloson
Mike Smith
Injury Report
Boston
Out for Series: Marc Savard (concussion)
Out for Start of Series (at least): Patrice Bergeron (concussion)
Probable for Game 1: Adam McQuaid (neck)
Probable (if needed): Steven Kampfer (knee)
The big question mark heading to this series is the health of Patrice Bergeron. The Bruins center and alternate captain suffered the third known concussion of his NHL career after taking a hard open ice hit from Claude Giroux of the Flyers in Game 4. There is no time table set for Bergeron's return to game action and B's fans have to wonder how this team can deal with the loss of their leading playoff point-getter, face-off guru, and one of the B's true leaders. Personally, I would be surprised to see Bergeron return during this series given his concussion history.
Tampa Bay
Out for Start of Series: Matt Smaby (lower body)
Doubtful for Game 1: Pavel Kubina (head)
Probable: Simon Gagne (head), Ryan Malone (shoulder), Dana Tyrell (foot), Randy Jones (ankle), Steve Downie (ankle)
Simon Gagne is expected to return to action for Game 1. Many Bruins fans are probably still cursing his name from last spring after his return from injury (coupled with David Krejci's injury) proved to be a major turning point in the Bruins collapse against the Flyers. Gagne racked up 5 goals in 4 games against the B's last years as a Flyer.
In Net
The goaltending Matchup features the two hottest goalies in the NHL playoffs. Tim Thomas has held the fort for the Bruins, while 41-year-old Umass Lowell grad Dwayne Roloson has been the unlikely hero of the playoffs and been dominant in the postseason.
Lightning's StrengthsFire Power Up Front: The Bolts have guys throughout their lineup that can put the puck in the net.
Goaltending...for the moment: Rolie the Goalie has the hot hand right now.
"The Tampa T": The Lightning do a great job of clogging up the neutral zone with a 1-3-1 trap.
Special Teams Play: 26.7% on the power play and 94.4% on the penalty kill...numbers don't lie.
Coaching: Scarface has this team playing some good hockey.
Lightning's Weaknesses
Blue Line: The Bolts put a lot of their resources into their forwards and rely heavily on their forwards to play a two-way game. If the B's can find a way to break down the 1-3-1 and play a possession game in the offensive zone, the Tampa Bay D corps can be exploited.
Goaltending: How long can this bag of fossils they have propped up in front of the goal hold up before he cracks?
Keys to the Series for the B's
Test Rolie the Goalie Early and Often: How long can Dwayne Roloson keep this up? Part of the Bruins' success against the Flyers was challenging Brain Boucher early in the series and early in games.
Figure Out What the F&%* is up with the Power Play!
Find a Way to Move the Puck through the Neutral Zone: The Lightning are going to live and die by the 1-3-1 trap.
Establish Physical Presence: The Bruins are a much bigger and more physical team than the Lightning. The B's need to make the slot a dangerous place for the Lightning's talented goal scorers.
Everyone Needs to Step up in Bergeron's Absence.
Don't Let the Lightning's Speedy Forwards Exploit the Difference in Foot Speed
Notes:
- So far, the Bruins path to the Stanley Cup has looked like the Mark Recchi Reality Tour: Montreal, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay.
- The Tampa Bay's marketing department must be filled with a bunch of slack-jawed chuckleheads. "All In"? Seriously? That is the best you could come up with? Also,what's up with changing your team's logo on the website and on the ice, but not changing the uniforms until next year? Way to establish consistent branding. On the bright side, there is no more forced Saw promos.
- Patrice Bergeron has been with the team, but has not been on the ice or participated in any physical activities.
- Barry Melrose thinks that the injury to Patrice Bergeron swings the momentum to the Lightning.
- The winner of this series will face the winner of the San Jose Sharks and Vancouver Canucks.
- Bolts fans, don't forget that it took a dude from Boston owning the team to right the ship in Tampa Bay.
- Calling it now: Nate Thompson is going to have a big moment in this series against his former team.
- Covers.com has the Bruins as -140 series favorites.
- Is Tyler Seguin ready for the big stage?
- The Bruins were last in the Eastern Conference Finals in 1992. Back then, NHL hockey in Florida was still a few months ago, Mark Recchi was finishing up his 4th NHL season, Tyler Seguin was 4 months old, Tim Thomas was a junior in high school, and Dwayne Roloson was a sophomore at UMass-Lowell.
- Raw Charge has you covered for all things Tampa Bay Lightning.
Stanley Cup of Chowder Staff Predictions
Evan (Stanley Cup of Chowder): Bruins in 7
Patrice Bergeron means a lot to this team and his absence is going to be a big blow for the B's in this series. In fact, I think Bergeron means so much to this team that I almost took the same stance as Barry Melrose and came very close to picking the Bolts, but I think when it comes down to it the B's have enough talent to overcome the hardship and will close out the LIghtning to advance to the Finals. Tim Thomas will steal a game or two and Rolie the Goalie will finally come back down to earth late in the series.
Phil (Phunwin): Bruins in 6
I've already stated at some length that I don't think Tampa Bay is as good as their record, so you can probably guess who I'm picking. If Dwayne Roloson continues doing his best Dominik Hasek impression, and the Lightning continue getting scoring from three lines, then yes, they stand an excellent chance of winning. I just don't see that happening. I just can't buy that this team somehow went from a team that was floating around league average (by goal differential; a better indicator of ability than record) most of the year to a juggernaut as soon as the calendar hit April. As long as Boston avoids a bunch of dumb penalties (Milan Lucic, I'm looking in your direction; you too, Brad Marchand) their 5 on 5 superiority should carry the day. Any defense where Eric Brewer is the best player can be exploited. This could easily be a replay of the Montreal series; they play similar styles, and although Tampa Bay has more firepower up front, I think the Bruins learned their lessons from that and won't spot the visitors two at TD Garden this time around. If Patrice Bergeron makes a quick comeback, as it's looking like he might, this series could be over quickly.
Tim, Stanley Cup of Chowder's Emergency Call-up/Black Ace (timmorrison23): Bruins in 6
[Editor's Note: Timmy sent his prediction via text]
I think each team splits the home ice and Bruins win in 6. Lucic is a beast this series. Bergeron returns Game 5.
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Entertaining preview, nice work.
That said, you guys need to revisit the “Roloson’s too old to keep this up” angle. Let’s not forget that your boy, Timmy “JESUS” Thomas, is only four years younger than the ancient one, and with significantly less playoff experience.
@Phunwin – Playoff hockey is about winning close games, something the Bolts have consistently proven over the course of this season. Regular season goal differential is the backbone of your argument against a Lightning team that’s won 7 in a row in the playoffs? C’mon, you’re better than that.
Good luck, but I’m thinking Lightning in 6. Special teams, inspired play from its leaders , and continued strong goaltending (from Old Man River) take it for the Bolts.
41 is a lot more than 37, and Roloson hasn’t had a season with better than a .915 save % since 03-04. Most goalies are no longer effective or retired by the time they reach 40. Thomas is up there in age but he just set the regular season save % record, while Roloson is a solid goalie playing over his head.
I mean, if four years is a short time, well, Roloson is only 4 years younger than Patrick Roy!
by Toe Nash on May 13, 2011 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, and Roy retired at the top of his game with a lot more left in the tank. Four years isn’t insignificant, but remember that Timmy had an absolutely HEINOUS season last year. He only got to the NHL at 31 and isn’t exactly the symbol of consistency. The Bs have the edge in goal, but waiting for Roloson to revert back to some other level of play isn’t a good way to think about beating the Lightning.
Thomas was injured last year, he had hip surgery after the season and he said his hip was affecting him. But he still managed a .915 save% which is better than Roloson has done in any year since 04, as I noted.
Roloson is a solid goalie playing over his head. He could continue to play this well, but it’s unlikely.
Why is it unlikely that he continues this level of play? He’s not exactly making absurd save after save, it’s been more of a team defense approach that’s helped his stats (forcing low % shots from the perimeter). And the Bs don’t have the forwards, with the exception of Horton, to expose a supposedly overachieving goalie.
This is the third conference final Roloson has taken a team to, and he’s potentially on the eve of going to his second Stanley Cup in five years. Betting on a reversion to the mean doesn’t seem appropriate here, given the Bs lack of firepower.
I’ll take Timmy’s bionic hip over Rolly’s mere mortal antics anyday!
by SkateHitShoot on May 13, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
The major challenge goalies face getting older is their reflexes slow down, they’re less nimble, and endurance.
Fatigue shouldn’t play a factor as both teams had lots of rest while waiting for the West to settle their conference finals. However if we see 60+ shots a game, either goalie will flinch eventually, but I’d put my money that Rollie the goalie flinches first.
Thomas is goddamn gumby. Roloson’s continued success has been because he changed styles to pure positional so that he can cover angles better, etc.
Finally, a regular season record save percentage tells us that Thomas’ reflexes might be at their peak.
by BruinsSelectSeguin on May 13, 2011 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Roy retired when Andrew Brunette scored the OT game-winner in game 7 with the Wild, knocking out the Avs in the first round and embarrassing the hell out of Patty Roy.
Bruno 
Hockey Blog Adventure: New Post: Round 1: NO HABS NO (I'm also on Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on May 13, 2011 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of the Wild, just wanna say “fuck Ohlund” again for breaking Koivu’s leg with a two-hander.
Hockey Blog Adventure: New Post: Round 1: NO HABS NO (I'm also on Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on May 13, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Heinous due to a torn labrum, not due to flakiness. Hip surgery made all the difference
by phonymahoney on May 13, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
HEINOUS?
he did good by normal standards just not HIS standards. and he broke his hip and hand in the same season!
*Allegedly on the hand
Some reports had him breaking a hand after punching a wall. The B’s never admitted to the injury.
by Stanley Cup of Chowder on May 13, 2011 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
“Winning close games” is as much an indicator of guts n’ heart n’ truculence as it is an indicator that you’re only slightly better than the other team. Teams with an inordinate number of 1 goal wins tend to suffer from regression to the mean at some point. True, playoff hockey tends to be lower scoring, thus depressing overall goal totals, but that doesn’t make regular season goal differential unimportant at all. It’s still an 82 game sample vs. an 11 game sample.
If Tampa Bay turned into a monster when the calendar hit April, then they deserve to win. I remain skeptical.
I agree. I was curious what their GD was after adding Roloson, and it turns out it was just +8 from Jan 1 on, if my count is correct. Before that it was -2. So either way, not impressive.
Tampa Bay is in the first year of a ownership/coaching/system change and the pieces all clicked when the calendar hit late March (Brewer learned the system, Malone/Downie/Gagne returned, and the penalty kill stepped up its play signifcantly)…They closed out the regular season winning 7 of their last 8 games and have gone 8-3 in the playoffs. They’ve already knocked three teams out of the playoffs (including a streaking Hurricanes team on their home ice in the last game of the reg season). Using an 82 game sample set to predict this series is, frankly, asinine.
Any attempt to predict the future based off past events is “asinine”. Just because Tampa started to play less shitty the last 10 games of the season(BFD)doesn’t make them any more or less likely to be better or worse in the series against the Bruins, it’s just speculation.
The playoffs really are a new season! The 82 games are played at such a different level, all for the purpose of making the playoffs. There has been some insane hockey going on this second season, our Bruins included, I find it tough to use what happened in the regular season as a gauge as to what to expect in the playoffs. No team could keep up the playoff level of intensity for 82 game! Either way it sure is good shit and I’m glad we’re still talking about it!
by SkateHitShoot on May 13, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Tampa's problem regarding GD
especially early in the season, was having an inordinate number of blowout losses. When they were down 4-0 late in the second period, that score would turn into 8-1. When they were up 4-0, it would turn into a (still relatively comfortable but not good for goal differential) 5-3.
Roloson’s first game was an overtime shutout. He played against the following night and was beaten 8-1 in Pittsburgh. From the next game forward, Tampa’s goal differential was +14. When you have a lot of blowouts like that, your numbers can change a lot based on minor fluctuations in where you start the sample. The question is whether those indicate a bad team or whether they indicate a team that was still learning the mental aspect of staying in games that were already decided with 20 minutes to play.
by Incipient_Senescence on May 13, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
RELOAD!
Shoot off screen!
Hockey Blog Adventure: New Post: Round 1: NO HABS NO (I'm also on Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on May 13, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
ha
Hockey Blog Adventure: New Post: Round 1: NO HABS NO (I'm also on Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on May 13, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I said Bruins in 6 vs Flyers and the Habs. No reason to change the course now. Bruins win in 6 with Bergeron scoring in overtime of game 6 to clinch.
by BruinsSelectSeguin on May 13, 2011 8:54 AM EDT reply actions
I am anxious to get on with this series, I think the Bruins have faced their toughest tests so far with the Habs and Flyers, I think Boston is due a series when they could just take it to an opponent and get this done in 6 games.
What we did to Philly wasn’t “taking it to them”?
Hockey Blog Adventure: New Post: Round 1: NO HABS NO (I'm also on Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on May 13, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Revert to the mean
Dwayne Roloson is not the best goaltender left in the playoffs, but he is a helluva lot better than his stats from Long Island indicate. I think the big story for this series is Bergenheim and Purcell will come back to Earth playing against a defensively responsible team. The other reversion to the mean that I am looking for is the Bruins PP – they need to be converting 12% at least to win this series.
One other point – the Colin Campbell announcement indicating the officials will be cracking down on dives and exaggeration will work in the Bruins favor. Bruins in 7 regardless of Bergeron.
Is “we want it” still the slogan?
Hockey Blog Adventure: New Post: Round 1: NO HABS NO (I'm also on Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on May 13, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Let's Go Bruins!
Thanks for the preview. Still recovering from the SJ-Det clash; still hoping for SJ-Bos Finals.
Watch for De-twah fans jumping on Yzerman’s Boltswagon…they are pretty pissed, since the tinfoil hats are now stuck up their asses.
Fahk them. Boston in 5, as I still hope Rolo = sieve. Even after taking copious quantities of goalie viagra, he can’t keep it up. Plus, he’ll go blind.
Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself, (I am large, I contain multitudes.)
Banworthy.
by whine_country on May 13, 2011 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Not B's-Bolts, but...
…if you haven’t seen what one of the Thrashers’ owners said about the future of the franchise, you gotta take a look. “If you know anybody who is interested, have them get in touch with us.”
Why Tom Glavine, Anson Carter, or anyone else would want to piss away their money on a lame duck franchise in a horrible hockey market is beyond me. For a major market, Atlanta is a horrible sports market. Even the Braves struggle to draw.
by Stanley Cup of Chowder on May 13, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Bruins in 5
Because:
A) As I’ve already mentioned, 1-3-1 is of little concern to the Bruins who’s zone entry is based off dump in’s. If anything, the Bruins 17 D to D passes in their own zone will most likely lull Tampa to sleep thus making it even less effective.
B) Rolie is 127 years old and doesn’t like people up in his crease and a team that scores a lot of dirty goals will be making a living in his house. The Bruins score a lot of dirty goals.
C) Who plays defense for Tampa? Exactly.
D) Boston is coming off a hard fought 7 game series against their most hated rivals, and an absolute thrashing of the team that embarrassed them last year. The Bruins have to be the most confident this core group has been in a long time. I really only see this series going one of two ways, either the Bruins come out and destroy Tampa, or the Bruins come out flat game after game and hand Tampa the series due to a lack of emotional involvement. If the Bruins go down after 2 games, I recommend we all launch a media campaign where we all insist the Tampa bench told us the mothers of the Bruin’s bench all had better playoff beards than they did in an attempt to spark a blazing inferno.
Fantastic
New Bruins Bear billboard
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 13, 2011 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
hey
I saw at least two Lightning fans (in addition to myself) when I went to that game back in December. One of them was even at the same commuter rail stop as me.
by Incipient_Senescence on May 13, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec
Hockey Blog Adventure: New Post: Round 1: NO HABS NO (I'm also on Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on May 15, 2011 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Rum.
Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself, (I am large, I contain multitudes.)
Banworthy.
by whine_country on May 13, 2011 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really. Lifetime series stats are kind of garbage.
by Stanley Cup of Chowder on May 13, 2011 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
it worries me, as a Lightning fan
it’s not like those four wins were all recent or anything. we were 0-2 in Boston this year
by Incipient_Senescence on May 13, 2011 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
B's in 7
Merely because I’m a bit biased. I think this has the makings of a classic series. Two teams that focus on taking care of business in their own end and using that to create offense. Special teams are going to be immensely important.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
Good Read! Hoping they can close it out earlier than 6 but that is probably a good number. I’m putting a lot of swing on the Bergy injury, I’m curious to see how they respond without him and if they do well, how long they can play well without him. If he’s ok and comes back early friggin’ game on!
I’m in Allentown PA for the weekend, for a graduation and there is no VS at the Hotel. My niece is looking for a Pub close by that we can sneek off to tomorrow night, thankfully its morning graduation and afternoon dinner, I hope I don’t pass out before 8!
That has been a big issue for Versus. For some reasons a lot of the hotels don’t carry it.
by Stanley Cup of Chowder on May 13, 2011 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I had the same problem in the first round
I’m guessing because nobody gets VS unless you have like 200 channels.
by Incipient_Senescence on May 14, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow, that is pretty shocking. 28 years old.
by Stanley Cup of Chowder on May 14, 2011 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Someone should go over to Blue Shirt Banter (if they haven’t already) and post condolences. I would, but there’s probably a waiting period to sign up.
by WeatherExperiment on May 14, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Boogaard was a fan fav here in Minnesota.
Just shocking and terrible news.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
Shocking and tragic. Absolutely unreal that he’ll never break another orbital bone or take kids on a tour again.
Mike Russo wrote the best piece about it I’ve seen: http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/121826023.html
Hockey Blog Adventure: New Post: Round 1: NO HABS NO (I'm also on Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on May 15, 2011 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions
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