FanPost

The Assumption Game: All Eyes on 4/4


As we sit here in ninth place on a quiet Friday afternoon, let us analyze the Boston Bruins' situation. Currently tied with Ottawa for the final playoff spot, they hold the all-important ROW tiebreaker by a single victory, yet sit on the outside looking in due to the fact that they have played one more game. So, without further adieu, we'll examine the status in full.

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This is the picture. So, easy question first: why are you even including the Islanders or Penguins? The short answer is, they're really not that far ahead of Washington, and could wind up in a wild card spot. However, they simply won't be caught up in the great WC2 chase. Pittsburgh has games against Arizona, Buffalo, Columbus, and Philly x2. NYI has games against Buffalo, Philly, and Columbus x2. They're safe.

Next on the docket is Detroit, who has a game in hand on everyone except Ottawa. Detroit's schedule isn't a cakewalk, but they're a veteran team, and two of their final three games are against a Carolina team that checked out around Valentine's Day. Even if they went ice cold over their next six games, they have an all but guaranteed four points waiting for them at the end of the schedule. There's no chance they're held pointless the rest of their games, especially considering the fact that they play everyone they're barely above at least once. They'll make the postseason.

We'll skip on down to Florida, who just won't go away. Can they catch and pass Ottawa or Boston? Yes, they can, but they have three absolute must-wins in order to get there: two against Boston, and one against Ottawa. They have a fourth, counting that game against Carolina. Wins in all of those games will put them at 90 points... but their four other games are Montreal x2, New Jersey, and Tampa Bay. The most for this team, realistically, is 94 points. And that's best-case scenario. And that still might not be enough, if Ottawa's showing against NYR was a hiccup amid a torrid pace. It's very, very tough to see Florida getting 12 points in their final 8 games to begin with, especially given their opponents. On top of all that, Florida has no chance of beating either Ottawa or Boston in a tie-breaker scenario. So let's table the idea of Florida leap-frogging two teams en route to the postseason.

Finally, we reach the crux of the matter: Washington and Ottawa. Let's take a look at the opponents for all three teams.

Washington: NASHVILLE, @Rangers, CAROLINA, @Montreal, @Ottawa, @Detroit, BOSTON, RANGERS

Ottawa: @Toronto, FLORIDA, @Detroit, TAMPA BAY, WASHINGTON, @Toronto, PITTSBURGH, @Rangers, @Philadelphia

Boston: RANGERS, @Carolina, FLORIDA, @Detroit, TORONTO, @Washington, @Florida, @Tampa Bay

Boy, that Washington schedule looks daunting. Now it's time to make the headline of this article mean something. Let's say that the following totally realistic scenario occurs: Washington wins only the game against Carolina, and Ottawa and Boston both take five points from the first four games on their slate. That would mean that on April 4th, Washington would be two points up on Boston and Ottawa, with Ottawa having a game in hand. Oh, and they'll have to travel to Ottawa in a game where every Bruins fan is praying for a regulation win, followed immediately by a forfeiture of points by the winning team for unexplained rules violations. In any case, we could be looking at a situation where there is a three-way tie for two wild-card spots going into the final week of the season. Oh, and one of the games Boston plays is against one of the teams it is tied with. Pretty crazy, right?

Alright, so let's back off details for a moment and focus on the grand picture: what amount of points will it take for Boston to make it? Well, I sort of gave the number away earlier in the article. 95 points aught to be enough to make the postseason in the Eastern Conference.

Washington really only has one cupcake left in Carolina, however assuming they go winless over their other seven games is futile. Three wins is attainable, and given how Boston/Ottawa/Florida all feed on each other a little bit, should give them enough cushion to make the postseason. However, keep an eye on Washington as we approach April 4th: if they slip, that game could make things a whole lot more interesting.

Ottawa would have to watch their Hamburgaler crash and burn spectacularly to not get at least 8 points, but getting another three could prove difficult. It's just tough to see them losing to Toronto in either game, or Philly in that final game. It really comes down to how they do against Florida and Washington.

As for Boston, they absolutely must must must win two out of the next four games. Entering that Toronto game (again, on April 4th) with anything less than 89 points could prove to be too steep of a mountain to climb. Sure, they could exit that date, still tied with Ottawa at 90 points or so, but then they would be facing Washington (likely with a chance to clinch), Florida (possibly needing a win to stay alive), and Tampa (with home-ice on the line) - all on the road. Meanwhile, Ottawa would still have a game in hand, and still be facing two of their four gimmies. On top of all of this, 10 points in 9 games is right in line with Ottawa's season average, meaning that if Ottawa is just plain season average Ottawa, Boston is going to need five wins in their eight games to make the postseason.

TL;DR - if Boston is on the outside looking in next Sunday Morning, even by a single point, we can all start praying to our various ping-pong ball deities.

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