Because I was bored with nothing to do, yet very excited about the coming NHL season, I decided to try to project the standings of 2015-16.
I projected point totals team by team, and my method was pretty simple. As a baseline, I simply took the team's point total from last season. From there, I changed the point total based on their offseason additions and subtractions, using the stat point shares as a guide.
So for instance, say there was a team who earned 90 points last year. They lost players in the offseason whose combined point shares were about 5. They added players in the offseason whose projected point share totals next season combined to about 6. I would project the team based on that data to earn 91 points next season.
Now obviously this method of projection could use some refinement, but I wanted more of a general feel for things, so I didn't account for things like how old or young a team is (whether their core players are expected to improve or regress), or how many injuries they had last season (given how badly the Columbus Blue Jackets in particular were pummeled by injuries last season, I tried to give them some points, but there was no clear benchmark as to how many points they'd earn last year had they suffered a normal amount of injuries). I think this method of projection has its bright sides, because it avoids a lot of the subjectivity that usually occur in these sorts of projections. I made little changes to what the raw numbers said, and I tried to make the changes I did make in at least a semi-objective fashion.
Here are the changes I made- I will note them as a way of telling you not to be shocked if the original point totals actually turn out to come true:
- I made some adjustments for teams that had severely underachieved or overachieved last season. I adjusted the point total of the Boston Bruins, giving them eight extra points. The way I got to that is by splitting the different in points that the Bruins earned between 2013-14 and 2014-15 (around twenty points) in half (to sort of represent a middle ground between underachieving and being in full form), and adjusting it based on our offseason changes in 2014. I gave the San Jose Sharks eight points and took ten points from the Calgary Flames on similar grounds.
- To illustrate the effect Mike Babcock has as an excellent coach, I took ten points away from the Detroit Red Wings and gave ten points to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Babcock can do quite a lot with what is given to him, so I think this is pretty reasonable.
So, without further ado, here are the projected 2015-16 NHL standings!
Atlantic Division
Detroit Red Wings 96
Boston Bruins 92
Toronto Maple Leafs 82
Metropolitan Division
Columbus Blue Jackets 96
Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks 107
Calgary Flames 99
San Jose Sharks 98
Central Division
Dallas Stars 100
St. Louis Blues 99
If these projections turn out to come true, eleven playoff teams from last year will return, with four new teams (Columbus, San Jose, Dallas and Colorado) joining the dance, and the last spot being decided on tiebreaks between Boston and Washington.
Of course, the games are played on the ice for a reason. There is plenty of room for surprises, good and bad ones alike; they happen every year. However, as you can see, the playoff race for the Bruins is projected to be very close. Every point will count!
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