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How bad is it? Looking at the rest of the season

By Cornelius Hardenbergh
Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

Let's begin with a graph from resident twitter stats expert InnefectiveMath:

The left side of that graph is the beginning of the month, and the right side is today. It's quite a drop. Here's how the standings look today, with magic numbers off to the right. A "magic number" is the number of standings points required between the team on the left winning and the team up top losing in order for the team on the left to finish above the team above. So, for example,

  • The Bruins have 73 GP and 84 Points. They can get a maximum of 18 more points in their remaining 9 games, for a potential maximum of 102 points.
  • The Senators have 72 GP and 85 points. They can get a maximum of 20 more points in their remaining 10 games, for a potential maximum of 105 points.
  • The Bruins need to get a combined 21 points between Bruins added points and Senators points left on the table.
  • The Senators need to get a combined 17 points between Senators added points and Bruins points left on the table.
# Team GP W L OTL PTS ROW Pot Max Was Ott Bos Flo
7 Washington Capitals 73 39 24 10 88 35 18 106 -- 17 14 10
8 Ottawa Senators 72 37 24 11 85 32 20 105 21 -- 17 13
9 Boston Bruins 73 36 25 12 84 33 18 102 22 21 -- 14
10 Florida Panthers 73 33 26 14 80 25 18 98 26 25 22 --

As you can see, it's an uphill battle. For a regularly-updating version of that table, I've got a google doc that updates regularly. Check it out.

So there are, in effect, 19 games that will decide whether the Bruins make the playoffs or not. Here are those 19 games, with the opponent's current standings and some other stats:

Date Time Team Opponent GP W L OL PTS PTS% SRS SOS
3/26/2015 7:00 PM Boston Bruins Anaheim Ducks 75 46 22 7 99 66.0% 0.11 0
3/26/2015 7:30 PM Ottawa Senators New York Rangers 72 46 19 7 99 68.8% 0.67 -0.06
3/28/2015 1:00 PM Boston Bruins New York Rangers 72 46 19 7 99 68.8% 0.67 -0.06
3/28/2015 7:00 PM Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs 74 27 41 6 60 40.5% -0.57 0.02
3/29/2015 5:00 PM Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes 72 26 36 10 62 43.1% -0.43 0.05
3/29/2015 5:00 PM Ottawa Senators Florida Panthers 73 33 26 14 80 54.8% -0.31 -0.02
3/31/2015 7:00 PM Boston Bruins Florida Panthers 73 33 26 14 80 54.8% -0.31 -0.02
3/31/2015 7:30 PM Ottawa Senators @ Detroit Red Wings 72 39 21 12 90 62.5% 0.13 -0.05
4/2/2015 7:30 PM Boston Bruins @ Detroit Red Wings 72 39 21 12 90 62.5% 0.13 -0.05
4/2/2015 7:30 PM Ottawa Senators Tampa Bay Lightning 74 46 21 7 99 66.9% 0.62 -0.07
4/4/2015 7:00 PM Boston Bruins Toronto Maple Leafs 74 27 41 6 60 40.5% -0.57 0.02
4/4/2015 7:00 PM Ottawa Senators Washington Capitals 73 39 24 10 88 60.3% 0.38 -0.06
4/5/2015 7:30 PM Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs 74 27 41 6 60 40.5% -0.57 0.02
4/7/2015 7:30 PM Ottawa Senators Pittsburgh Penguins 73 40 22 11 91 62.3% 0.31 0.03
4/8/2015 8:00 PM Boston Bruins @ Washington Capitals 73 39 24 10 88 60.3% 0.38 -0.06
4/9/2015 7:00 PM Ottawa Senators @ New York Rangers 72 46 19 7 99 68.8% 0.67 -0.06
4/9/2015 7:30 PM Boston Bruins @ Florida Panthers 73 33 26 14 80 54.8% -0.31 -0.02
4/11/2015 12:30 PM Ottawa Senators @ Philadelphia Flyers 74 29 29 16 74 50.0% -0.32 -0.01
4/11/2015 7:30 PM Boston Bruins @ Tampa Bay Lightning 74 46 21 7 99 66.9% 0.62 -0.07

It's not the prettiest picture in the world. But all laid out like that is tough to comprehend. Here those same stats are, but now it's averaged out:

Team Boston Bruins Ottawa Senators
GP 73.00 73.00
W 37.84 35.60
L 25.30 27.70
OL 9.86 9.70
PTS 85.54 80.90
PTS% 58.59% 55.41%
SRS 0.14 -0.01
SOS -0.04 -0.02
GF 207.16 199.40
GA 194.66 198.90

Here are the 2015 fancier stats, as well. Yes, it's an ugly average. This is the stats of the opponents, 5v5 score-adjusted:

Team Boston Bruins Ottawa Senators
2015 SAT% 51.13 51.01
2015 OSh% 7.68 7.44
2015 OSv% 92.34 91.87
2015 SPSv% 100.01 99.30

I'm not gonna lie, it doesn't look good. The Senators have a game in hand. The Senators have a point above us already. The Senators appear to have the easier schedule coming up, by almost every measure.

But there are tales told of a man. A hero. A man who didn't want to know the odds because he was too busy trying to beat them. A man of valor, and grit, and violence when he needed to be. One that could help along a new hope. That's right - Han Solo.

Let's shoot first.