Let's begin with a graph from resident twitter stats expert InnefectiveMath:
Playoff chances, East. pic.twitter.com/iAC4m3iCen— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) March 25, 2015
The left side of that graph is the beginning of the month, and the right side is today. It's quite a drop. Here's how the standings look today, with magic numbers off to the right. A "magic number" is the number of standings points required between the team on the left winning and the team up top losing in order for the team on the left to finish above the team above. So, for example,
- The Bruins have 73 GP and 84 Points. They can get a maximum of 18 more points in their remaining 9 games, for a potential maximum of 102 points.
- The Senators have 72 GP and 85 points. They can get a maximum of 20 more points in their remaining 10 games, for a potential maximum of 105 points.
- The Bruins need to get a combined 21 points between Bruins added points and Senators points left on the table.
- The Senators need to get a combined 17 points between Senators added points and Bruins points left on the table.
As you can see, it's an uphill battle. For a regularly-updating version of that table, I've got a google doc that updates regularly. Check it out.
So there are, in effect, 19 games that will decide whether the Bruins make the playoffs or not. Here are those 19 games, with the opponent's current standings and some other stats:
|3/26/2015||7:00 PM||Boston Bruins||Anaheim Ducks||75||46||22||7||99||66.0%||0.11||0|
|3/26/2015||7:30 PM||Ottawa Senators||New York Rangers||72||46||19||7||99||68.8%||0.67||-0.06|
|3/28/2015||1:00 PM||Boston Bruins||New York Rangers||72||46||19||7||99||68.8%||0.67||-0.06|
|3/28/2015||7:00 PM||Ottawa Senators||@||Toronto Maple Leafs||74||27||41||6||60||40.5%||-0.57||0.02|
|3/29/2015||5:00 PM||Boston Bruins||@||Carolina Hurricanes||72||26||36||10||62||43.1%||-0.43||0.05|
|3/29/2015||5:00 PM||Ottawa Senators||Florida Panthers||73||33||26||14||80||54.8%||-0.31||-0.02|
|3/31/2015||7:00 PM||Boston Bruins||Florida Panthers||73||33||26||14||80||54.8%||-0.31||-0.02|
|3/31/2015||7:30 PM||Ottawa Senators||@||Detroit Red Wings||72||39||21||12||90||62.5%||0.13||-0.05|
|4/2/2015||7:30 PM||Boston Bruins||@||Detroit Red Wings||72||39||21||12||90||62.5%||0.13||-0.05|
|4/2/2015||7:30 PM||Ottawa Senators||Tampa Bay Lightning||74||46||21||7||99||66.9%||0.62||-0.07|
|4/4/2015||7:00 PM||Boston Bruins||Toronto Maple Leafs||74||27||41||6||60||40.5%||-0.57||0.02|
|4/4/2015||7:00 PM||Ottawa Senators||Washington Capitals||73||39||24||10||88||60.3%||0.38||-0.06|
|4/5/2015||7:30 PM||Ottawa Senators||@||Toronto Maple Leafs||74||27||41||6||60||40.5%||-0.57||0.02|
|4/7/2015||7:30 PM||Ottawa Senators||Pittsburgh Penguins||73||40||22||11||91||62.3%||0.31||0.03|
|4/8/2015||8:00 PM||Boston Bruins||@||Washington Capitals||73||39||24||10||88||60.3%||0.38||-0.06|
|4/9/2015||7:00 PM||Ottawa Senators||@||New York Rangers||72||46||19||7||99||68.8%||0.67||-0.06|
|4/9/2015||7:30 PM||Boston Bruins||@||Florida Panthers||73||33||26||14||80||54.8%||-0.31||-0.02|
|4/11/2015||12:30 PM||Ottawa Senators||@||Philadelphia Flyers||74||29||29||16||74||50.0%||-0.32||-0.01|
|4/11/2015||7:30 PM||Boston Bruins||@||Tampa Bay Lightning||74||46||21||7||99||66.9%||0.62||-0.07|
It's not the prettiest picture in the world. But all laid out like that is tough to comprehend. Here those same stats are, but now it's averaged out:
|Team||Boston Bruins||Ottawa Senators|
Here are the 2015 fancier stats, as well. Yes, it's an ugly average. This is the stats of the opponents, 5v5 score-adjusted:
|Team||Boston Bruins||Ottawa Senators|
I'm not gonna lie, it doesn't look good. The Senators have a game in hand. The Senators have a point above us already. The Senators appear to have the easier schedule coming up, by almost every measure.
But there are tales told of a man. A hero. A man who didn't want to know the odds because he was too busy trying to beat them. A man of valor, and grit, and violence when he needed to be. One that could help along a new hope. That's right - Han Solo.
Let's shoot first.