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Another Day, Another WAR Model

How Bruins Stand in Evolving Wild’s New Model

NHL: Stanley Cup Playoffs-Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Evolving Wild twins have just released a new Wins Above Replacement model. As with any release of a new stat, you must check out how your favorite team’s players stand. The 2017-18 Bruins look like this:

When this was sent to me prior to the release, I was shocked to see that Jake DeBrusk was the top dog. Of course, this should be viewed in intervals of confidence. Was DeBrusk better than Marchand and Pastrnak with less time on ice than both of them? Probably not.

As many would have guessed, Riley Nash was the best of the players that are no longer with the Bruins. Almost all of his 13.3 goals above replacement came from even strength play. His services will surely be missed.

Unsurprisingly, Pastrnak and Bergeron led Bruins in powerplay goals above replacement. Pastrnak was the go-to one-timer option from the Bruins, while also contributing on many entries. Bergeron is one of the best bumpers in the league. Meanwhile Ryan Spooner and Danton Heinen fell at replacement level on the man advantage which is quite shocking.

Brandon Carlo, Kevan Miller, and Tim Schaller all came in at more than two goals above replacement on the penalty kill. There are only three current Bruins forwards that were above replacement level shorthanded last season, and they are surely hoping Nordstrom will work out with Kuraly on the second unit.

DeBrusk and Pastrnak are far above third place on the Bruins in penalty goals above replacement. It often get’s lost in the storm how big of an impact penalties have on a game. DeBrusk and Pastrnak do a solid job of staying out of the box, while drawing penalties at the same time.

This model is meant to be descriptive, which means it is just an estimate on what happened, and doesn’t necessarily have much value on predicting the future. It’s also still being tweaked with peer review. If you want to play around with these stats and more, you can visit their site.