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Analytics Profile: Charlie McAvoy

Young Stallion

Ottawa Senators v Boston Bruins Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Shot Creation : C-

3 year WAR/82 : -0.05

3 year RAMP Z-Score : -0.30

Over the span of his short career so far, McAvoy seems to have been below average at creating shots for his team. Let the shock sink in before we continue. Given a regular visit to Corsica, you would think the opposite. Last season, McAvoy’s teammates took 1.51 more shot attempts per hour at 5v5 than with him than without him. That’s pretty good, right?

The models think differently. There are factors that more “traditional” advanced stats have trouble picking up on. RelTMCF60, the previously stated stat, uses a weighted average for teammates. We’ve already addressed Chara’s shot creation abilities in this series, and they are not phenomenal. He played most of his time with Chara, so that will play a large factor in this stat. Models do a lot better job of adjusting for context, so we’ll leave his shot creation abilities as slightly below average.

Shot Suppression : A+

3 year WAR/82 : 1.06

3 year RAMP Z-Score : 1.12

A short time from now, the Bruins will be forced to ice a team without Zdeno Chara. That means they will need a new shutdown defenseman, and Charlie McAvoy is just the guy.

Last season, McAvoy’s teammates gave up 5.06 less shot attempts per hour with him than without him. That’s insane. That’s the best among active Bruins defensemen with at least 1,000 5v5 minutes over the last three seasons, and by a long shot. Some may say this is because of Chara, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. We saw a very similar argument when Colin Miller was by his side, and Miller has produced the same stellar defensive results without him.

Offensive Shot Quality : C-

3 year WAR/82 : -0.07

May the shock still rain down on you. McAvoy’s offensive shot quality has been subpar so far in his short career. Last season, the Bruins’ expected unblocked shooting percentage dropped 0.26% when he was on the ice. This wasn’t the case in reality as the Bruins unblocked shooting percentage rose 0.56% with him on the ice. McAvoy’s skill perhaps played a part in this. He has a below replacement shooting WAR so far in his career, but his passing skills could help boost his on-ice shooting percentage.

Defensive Shot Quality : C

3 year WAR/82 : -0.09

McAvoy’s defensive shot quality is kind of a mystery. He’s been below replacement level by the WAR model, but his relative stats have been good. Last season, Bruins goaltenders were expected to see their unblocked save percentages rise 0.26% with McAvoy on the ice. Perhaps there is context that we are missing here that can explain the difference in his WAR and relative stats.

Author’s Comments

Truth be told, we are very uncertain about McAvoy’s abilities right now. He performed quite well last season, and we should only see that improve. As he adjusts to the NHL game more and more, we should expect to see his offensive skills reflected in his stats. His strong shot suppression skills should not be taken lightly. Defense typically peaks later, so for a young defenseman to be so strong defensively this early is a bonus. McAvoy could certainly develop into a Norris-caliber defenseman in the next few years.