clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Analytics Profile: Kevan Miller

New, comment

Captain America

Tampa Bay Lightning v Boston Bruins - Game Four

Shot Creation : C-

3 year WAR/82 : 0.11

3 year RAPM Z-Score : -0.60

These two models would have a hard time being anymore different. Although 0.11 WAR/82 isn’t phenomenal, for one component, it’s about average. On the other hand, the RAMP finds Miller to be in the bottom third of the league in shot creation. In reality, he is probably somewhere in the middle.

Over the last three seasons, Miller’s teammates took 1.59 more shot attempts per hour without him at 5v5. That’s not that great. That’s the worst among Bruins defensemen who’ve played 1000 minutes for the Bruins over the last three seasons. I don’t know what variables the WAR model sees to find Miller above replacement in this aspect over the last three seasons, but there is something that the model likes.

Shot Suppression : B-

3 year WAR/82 : 0.27

3 year RAPM Z-Score : 0.93

Shot suppression is definitely what carries Miller to his positive corsi stats. His teammates allowed 2.54 less shot attempts per hour with at 5v5 over the last three seasons, which outweighs the -1.59 relTMCF60 that was previously stated.

However, the models don’t think so highly of Miller. He is certainly above average at suppressing shots, but he’s not as great as his shot metrics may seem. Relative to teammate stats are a weighted average of teammates results with and without the player. The models do a much better job at adjusting for context.

Offensive Shot Quality : C

3 year WAR/82 : 0.02

Miller is really just average at offensive shot quality. The Bruins 5v5 expected unblocked save percentage had dropped 0.03% with Miller on the ice over the last three seasons. That’s not that notable, especially over such a long period of time. And while his WAR is positive for this component, it’s not by much. He just doesn’t really effect shot quality positively or negatively.

Defensive Shot Quality : C

3 year WAR/82 : 0.04

Just like his offensive shot quality, he’s pretty average on the other side of the puck. Bruins goaltenders were expected to save 0.05% less of the unblocked shots they faced. That’s not too noteworthy. He’s above replacement level in this aspect as well, but not by much. To say he has a null impact wouldn’t be far off.

Author’s Comments

Kevan Miller had a phenomenal 2015-16 season, which seemed to go unnoticed. It inflates some of his numbers in here. Although he may have won over some Bruins fans’ hearts this past season with his improved skating, his best years were the ones when everyone was hating on him. He’s a dependable player with low upside. He’s very effective in his current role, but isn’t an ideal candidate to be moving into your top four.