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Analytics Profile: Noel Acciari

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Probably better than you thought

NHL: Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Shot Creation : D

3 year WAR/82 : -0.18

3 year RAPM Z-Score : -1.14

Let’s just say, shot creation isn’t really Acciari’s forte. Emmanuel Perry’s WAR model finds him below replacement level, and Evolving Wild’s regularized adjusted plus-minus finds him well below average in this regard. Given that these two model’s both agree Acciari does a pretty poor job of creating shots for his team, it’s likely that is true.

Acciari’s teammates have recorded 6.37 less shot attempts per hour while playing with him. Acciari ranks, by far, the worst among Bruins skaters with 1,000 5v5 minutes over the last three seasons in relTM CF60. Models do a better job adjusting for context like zone starts, quality of teammates, and quality of competition. Given that Acciari’s usage hasn’t been the easiest, models give a brighter outlook, but not by much. Shot creation is a clear weakness in his game.

Shot Suppression : B-

3 year WAR/82 : 0.05

3 year RAPM Z-Score : 0.65

Both Perry’s and Evolving Wild’s models conflict on Acciari’s shot suppression skills. While Perry’s WAR model finds him around replacement level in this aspect, his regularized adjusted plus-minus finds him above average.

Acciari has had relatively little impact defensively over the last three seasons when using relative shot attempts. His teammates give up 0.55 less shot attempts per hour when they are with him. That isn’t that notable of an impact, especially in only 1,125 5v5 minutes. It’s hard to pinpoint how good or bad Acciari’s shot suppression skills are, but it more likely than not he is an above average shot suppressor, but nothing too spectacular.

Offensive Shot Quality : C

3 year WAR/82 : 0.05

Although Acciari struggles to produce shots at even strength, he seems to be about average in terms of shot quality. The Bruins were expected to sink 0.19% more of their unblocked shots while he was on the ice. That is a fairly significant, positive impact. However, the results say otherwise.

The Bruins actually net 1.89% less of their unblocked shots while Acciari is on the ice. There are a mixture of factors that go into that. Part of that is randomness. 1,125 minutes is a lot smaller of a sample than some might think, especially when it comes to goals. Moreover, when you play on the fourth line, the teammates around you generally don’t have too much shooting skills, especially compared to your teammates on the top three lines. However, Acciari is partially responsible for that, as he doesn’t possess the greatest shooting talent either.

Defensive Shot Quality : A-

3 year WAR/82 : 0.33

Although we are more or less uncertain about Acciari’s ability to suppress shots, we are more certain he is good at preventing high-quality ones. This is certainly the strength of Acciari’s game.

Bruins’ goaltenders are expected to save 0.72% more of their unblocked shots against while Acciari is on the ice. That is the best impact by any Bruins skater with at least 1,000 5v5 minutes over the course of the last three seasons. Although some of that may be due to the competition he is facing, he has still done a fabulous job at preventing high-quality shots against.

Author’s Comments

Accairi, in many ways, is what you expect out of a fourth line forward. He is pretty good defensively, and slows the game down. However, his poor offensive skills make him very replaceable. This is a contract year for Acciari, and if any young center in the Bruins’ system (most likely Frederic) can prove to be responsible defensively, their offensive upside could hurt Acciari’s chances of being re-signed by the Bruins come next summer.