Analytics Profile: John Moore

Shot Creation : C-

3 year WAR/82 : -0.31

3 year RAPM Z-Score : -0.73

If you haven’t already gotten an introduction on John Moore, I suggest you read an article I wrote back in July. In there, I talked about how his skills haven’t been translating to results.

Even though Moore is an offensive defenseman, his ability to create shots for his team has been below average. His wins above replacement in this aspect is awful, along with his regularized adjusted plus-minus. The Devils actually created 1.42 more shot attempts per hour at 5v5 with him on the ice over the last three seasons, but that is the issue with relative stats. He had some of the easiest usage among Devils defensemen. He had high quality of teammates compared to the others, and favorable zone starts.

Shot Suppression : D-

3 year WAR/82 : -0.45

3 year RAPM Z-Score : -1.17

Moore is a far worse shot suppressor. There’s not one good metric for him when it comes to this aspect of the game. Moore’s teammates allowed 4.05 more shot attempts against per hour with him at 5v5 over the last three seasons. That is easily the worst among Devils defensemen.

The models really don’t like him either. The WAR model finds him well below replacement in this aspect, and the RAPM finds him well below average. I think this is a well known weakness for Moore around the league, but perhaps people don’t think it is as bad as it is.

Offensive Shot Quality : C+

3 year WAR/82 : 0.01

Offensive shot quality is the strongest point in Moore’s game, and it shows by both the numbers and the eye test. The Devils’ expected unblocked shooting percentage rose 0.19% with Moore on the ice over the last three seasons. And their actual unblocked shooting percentage rose 0.90% in the same time frame.

The WAR model finds him around replacement, and that’s been steady over the last three seasons. His ability to increase the percentage of shots going in, is largely found in the realized results. He has a positive shooting WAR, and has been solid in terms of pre-shot movement as I referenced in July.

Defensive Shot Quality : C-

3 year WAR/82 : -0.09

For all of the good that comes from Moore’s offensive shot quality, it’s matched with poor defensive shot quality. The Devils were expected to see their unblocked save percentage drop 0.24% with Moore on the ice over the last three seasons. That outweighs his boost to expected shooting percentage as previously stated. Moore is definitely below average at preventing high-quality shots.

Author’s Comments

Even though the Bruins signed Moore to five years, I think they see him more as a project. He possesses the skills they see fit their system, and the new brand of hockey. Moore has had poor results so far in his career, but I think the Bruins feel they can change that. Skill is a lot harder to come by than effectiveness, and Moore has skill. We’ll see what the future holds for Moore, but hopefully it’s a bright one.