Shot Creation : D+
3 year WAR/82 : 0.10
3 year RAPM Z-Score : -1.36
Joakim Nordstrom isn’t very good at creating shot attempts for his team. The WAR model finds him consistently, slightly above replacement, but the regularized adjusted plus-minus finds him well below average.
Keep in mind that the Hurricanes have been a team that has dominated shot metrics over Nordstrom’s stay, but over the last three seasons, the Hurricanes attempted 5.53 less shot attempts per hour with Nordstrom on the ice at 5v5. Relative to teammate metrics are slightly better, and like Nordstrom slightly better too. His negative impact drops from 5.53 to 4.57 using relative to teammates instead. That is still really bad though.
Shot Suppression : C
3 year WAR/82 : 0.03
3 year RAMP Z-Score : 0.18
Nordstrom’s ability to suppress shots is certainly greater than his ability to create them. The WAR model thinks slightly differently. He is closer to replacement in this aspect of his game by the WAR model, but they are not significantly different. And the RAPM actually finds him to be an above average shot suppressor.
Over the last three seasons, Nordstrom’s teammates have allowed the same amount of shot attempts per hour with and without him at 5v5. When you look at on versus off-ice, he has a slightly positive impact. It’s hard to figure out exactly where Nordstrom’s shot suppression abilities stand, especially given his role, but I think it’s about average.
Offensive Shot Quality : C-
3 year WAR/82 : -0.10
I’m probably a bit too optimistic on Nordstrom’s ability to create high-quality shots. Nordstrom was actually above replacement in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons. In 2017-18, Nordstrom cost his team 0.36 wins in this area. Weighing results over different time frames is difficult, but Nordstrom is still below average in this aspect no matter how you look at it.
Over the last three seasons, the Hurricanes saw their expected unblocked shooting percentage drop 0.50% with Nordstrom on the ice. That’s not very good. However, he’s looked a bit worse than that. When Nordstrom was on the ice, the Hurricanes were expected to score on 5.81% of their unblocked shots. In reality, they scored on 3.98%, which is a big drop. Because of this, Nordstrom was on the ice for 1.37 goals for per hour instead of the expected 2. Some of that is due to things we can’t measure like pre-shot movement, or even shooting talent (Nordstrom has a negative WAR there), but this certainly cut into Nordstrom’s point totals.
Defensive Shot Quality : C
3 year WAR/82 : -0.04
Nordstrom is probably average at preventing high-quality shots. With Nordstrom on the ice over the last three seasons, the Hurricanes goaltenders were expected to see their unblocked save percentage rise 0.15%. That’s a decent impact, but playing on the fourth line most of the time probably decreased the expected quality that he should face and probably knocked him down a little bit. Still, Nordstrom is alright, but not phenomenal in this aspect.
I probably made Nordstrom look a bit too good here. I think an honest stance on him is that he’s a fourth liner coming off a really bad 2017-18 season. Things fell apart in Carolina last season, and hopefully a new start in Boston will help.
Nordstrom put up 0.42 wins above replacement over the two prior seasons, and last season really taints his resume. Don’t expect much production from him, but he should be dependable on the fourth line and step into the penalty kill if asked.