FanPost

A Look at What Charlie McAvoy's Next Contract Might Look Like, Part 1

Over the past few months we have discussed the topic of Charlie McAvoy's next contract ad nauseum, so what better time than now to continue to discuss the topic of Charlie McAvoy's next contract ad nauseum? Many of you are already aware of my stance regarding the upcoming negotiations, but I thought I'd take a deeper dive into what 2nd contracts look like for many of the marquee defensemen around the NHL and how that might affect the McAvoy negotiations.

(And I already told myself that if an extension is announced before I finalize this piece - because of course - I will post anyway so that you can all see how wrong I was. Also, you can thank me for my part in getting it done)

Background

Charlie McAvoy was drafted 14th overall in the 2016 NHL Draft by Boston, presumably because the Bruins were in need of defensive help and the team did not identify an underutilized 4th liner out of the OHL to take a gamble on (too soon?). McAvoy went on to enjoy a very successful freshman season under David Quinn at Boston University, so much so that he was one-and-done in the NCAA ranks - something especially impressive for a defenseman not taken at the very top of the draft. After signing an NHL contract and playing 4 games for Providence, his number was called in Boston as the Bruins suffered from a plethora of injuries on their backend as they were about to start the first round of the NHL Playoffs against Ottawa. And on April 12, 2017 Charlie McAvoy made his NHL debut in Game 1 of the playoffs playing alongside Zdeno Chara - which is fucking baller - and played all 6 games in the Bruins' first round loss.

McAvoy would go on to play a combined 152 games over the past 2 seasons - including 35 playoff games. He would have played more had he not incurred some nagging injuries plus an emergency surgery to correct an abnormal heart rhythm that kept him out of action for 2 weeks in January of last year (only 2 weeks? holy shit!!). Thus far in his career, he has 17 goals, 59 assists, and 122 penalty minutes in 158 career games up to this point as a 21 year old.

It is important to note that because McAvoy played in 6 games in the 2017 Playoffs, he burned the first year of his 3 year entry level contract (ELC), however he did not accrue a year of service because it was only 6 games. Therefore, he is not eligible to be signed to an offer sheet and needs 2 additional years of service to accrue arbitration rights, per CapFriendly.

The Long Term Deal

Like many Bruin fans, you probably won't Charlie McAvoy to remain in Black and Gold for a long, long time. So what better way to do that than to sign Charlie McAvoy for a long, long time?!? When we talk a long term deal, we are usually looking at a contract with a term of 6 to 8 years, with the latter being the max term allowable under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).

With that said, below is the list of defensemen that signed contracts with term of 6 years or more immediately following the expiration of their ELC. I only took the defensemen whose cap hit currently ranks in the top 50 amongst their position ($5.1M+ AAV) according to CapFriendly. Please note that both Year pertains to the year that the 2nd contract began (not necessarily when it was signed) and Age is the player's age on opening night of the aforementioned Year status. Cap Hit % denotes the percentage of the AAV with regards to the cap ceiling at the time the deal took effect, and D Cap Hit Rank is applied only to those contracts that are current (if the 2nd contract has expired, it no longer ranks and will be denoted with an N/A).

Defensemen's 2nd Contracts with Term of 6+ Years

Year

Age

AAV

Term

Cap Hit %

D Cap Hit Rank

Ekblad

2017

21

$7.5M

8

10.27%

11th

Doughty

2011

21

$7M

8

10.89%

N/A

Karlsson

2012

22

$6.5M

7

10.11%

N/A

Pietrangelo

2013

23

$6.5M

7

10.11%

T-18th

Hamilton

2015

22

$5.75M

6

8.05%

T-29th

Keith

2010

27

$5.538M

13

9.75%

32nd

Ekman-Larson

2013

22

$5.5M

6

8.55%

N/A

Myers

2012

22

$5.5M

7

8.55%

N/A

Ristolainen

2016

21

$5.4M

6

7.40%

T-40th

Jones

2016

21

$5.4M

6

7.40%

T-40th

Slavin

2018

24

$5.3M

7

7.07%

43rd

Skjei

2018

24

$5.25M

6

6.60%

T-44th

Lindholm

2016

22

$5.25M

6

7.19%

T-44th

Theodore

2018

23

$5.2M

7

6.54%

47th

McDonagh

2013

24

$4.7M

6

7.31%

N/A

Carlson

2012

22

$3.967M

6

6.61%

N/A

Right off the bat, let's exclude Duncan Keith's contract from the analysis. It has a 13 year term that is no longer permitted under the current CBA and was signed when he was 27. It is an outlier and not necessary for this analysis.

We can clearly see from these deals that there is a clear discrepancy between the top 4 defensemen and the remaining, as the first four listed are the only one's with a Cap Hit % above 8.55% - or even 10% for that matter. They are: Aaron Ekblad, Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, and Alex Pietrangelo.

Points at Completion of ELC

Age

Games

Points

Pts/Gm

Ekblad

21

233

97

0.416

Doughty

21

251

137

0.546

Karlsson

22

229

156

0.681

Pietrangelo

23

238

128

0.538

McAvoy

21

158

79

0.500

Aaron Ekblad - when pundits talk about what a long term contract for McAvoy might look like, they often point to Ekblad's $7.5M AAV for the starting point for McAvoy. It is important to note that Ekblad was extended a year prior to becoming a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) at the age of 20. To that point he had already played in 2 full NHL seasons and registered 76 points. In McAvoy's first 2 seasons he played 81 combined games while chipping in 40 points. While the point totals are comparable given the amount of NHL games, it has to be acknowledged that the #1 overall pick in the 2014 Draft was able to step in immediately following his draft year and contribute, while also playing the bulk of games. McAvoy struggled to stay in the lineup in both his 2nd and 3rd seasons (Ekblad has only missed more than 4 games once in his 5 seasons).

Another important note to consider when looking at the Ekblad contract is this: it hasn't aged well. When the Panthers extended Ekblad they thought they were getting a perennial Norris Trophy candidate (like the guys we're about to get to), but rather Ekblad hasn't received a single Norris Trophy vote since finishing 22nd and 16th in his first 2 years, respectively. And this guy has the highest cap hit for a defenseman on his second contract ever. While McAvoy's camp may want to point to $7.5M as a starting point, I think the Bruins would point to him as a reason why a 10%+ cap hit should not be a place they are willing to go.

Drew Doughty - the #2 overall pick in the 2008 NHL Draft was able to step into the Kings lineup immediately after being selected and contributed heavily: finishing 3rd in both defenseman scoring and Norris Trophy voting in his second season. His 137 points in 251 games puts him above the .5 points-per-game pace McAvoy is at through 3 seasons and, coupled with being one of the best defensemen in the NHL and getting an invite to the NHL Awards at the age of 20, puts him in a clear tier above McAvoy at the completion of his ELC.

Erik Karlsson - after being selected by the Ottawa Senators with the 15th overall pick in the 2008 NHL Draft, Karlsson spent his draft +1 season overseas in Sweden. After a promising yet unspectacular rookie season, Karlsson improved each season of his ELC, culminating in a Norris Trophy win in his 3rd season where he scored 25 more points than the next highest scoring defenseman. He was obviously able to parlay his historic season into a megadeal that saw him continue to win Norris Trophies over the life of the contract. Like Doughty: another tier.

Alex Pietrangelo - possibly the most unique case of all the 2nd contract comparables, the 4th overall pick in the 2008 NHL Draft did not earn his first year of NHL service until 2 seasons following his selection. This caused him to be one of the older defensemen to sign a long term second deal at the age of 23. Pietrangelo's numbers to that point were slightly more impressive - to be expected at an older age - than McAvoy. I think that Pietrangelo not fully breaking into the league until his draft +3 season really curtailed the possibility of anything less than a long term deal, as he was a young player with a high draft pedigree that had already established himself and thus there was no need for St Louis to entertain a shorter bridge deal. Since Pietrangelo was also to play 2 full seasons plus nearly every game in the lockout shortened year leading up to his free agency, I think you could say he was at where McAvoy might be at if he were to sign a bridge deal for 2 years and consistently play in the lineup over that term - which would also put him at 23 when looking for a long term deal.

Looking back at the megadeal comparable for long term deals, it is clear that both Doughty and Karlsson had established themselves as elite players at their positions when they got to where McAvoy is today. Ekblad was signed as though he would become one and hasn't panned out up till this point, while Pietrangelo didn't sign his contract until he was 2 years older than McAvoy. Without arbitrations rights for McAvoy as mentioned prior, I don't think that his camp can point to Pietrangelo's pact as one to drive up his earnings. McAvoy would have to wait 2 years (and probably prove he could stay healthy) before looking for a long term deal with upwards of 10% cap hit.

If arbitration rights and lack of good comparables keep McAvoy out of the 10%-and-up club, the next set of comparables all come in between 6.4% and 8.55%. At first glance it would appear as though McAvoy is more comparable to many of the guys on the higher end of that range rather than lower (with some notable exceptions, of course). Something around 8% of the cap would put McAvoy's AAV in the high 6's, which I think is reasonable for a player with... once again... no arbitration or offer sheet rights. Sweeney shouldn't increase the AAV to make a long term deal work because he doesn't have to. At this point it would be up to McAvoy's camp to decide whether they would prefer the security of a long term deal now or bet on themselves with something shorter in an attempt to cash in when they have more leverage.

Cap Hit at $81.5M Cap Ceiling

Theodore Territory

6.55%

$5.34M

Ristolainen/Jones Territory

7.55%

$6.15M

Ekman-Larsson/Myers Territory

8.55%

$6.97M

With that I just realized I've already written a ton of words (or it seems like a ton to me anyhow!) so I'll let this marinate before we get into bridge deal options and comparables in the next couple days... stay tuned!




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